20 replies to this topic

[relax]

Hi semi, as always interesting work, but think that you are focusing on what is happening "fundamentally" and not solely on the charts we dont have five black candles in a row in S&P and Dow i will start believing you once we get that nas gap filled until that happens i will stay neutral with a bullish influence nothing was impressive about what happened technically friday, except that the gap was not filled large volume has been tested before, but what about a high volume bottom (high volume reversal) as we saw back in may yes the bottom may be tested, but there is a huge difference as to whether it is this week or in october we know nothing - we really dont - lets see monday - but tell me someone who wants to short this, when the fed are ready to mess them up and "no liquidity" - well how are people shorting like crazy - there has to be plenty of liquidity outthere and i have seen no evidence in data that US growth is going below 2 per cent so "fundamentally" not much has changed compared to some weeks ago - only thing that has changed is the media's focus on it...

[ogm]

and "no liquidity" - well how are people shorting like crazy - there has to be plenty of liquidity outthere

The new bubble.....

Edited by ogm, 18 August 2007 - 11:25 PM.

[dasein]

Dont fight the FED says bullish is right - for now. Question is how long can the FED fight the decline? I think you are both right, it is just timing<G> klh

[qqqqtrdr]

NASDAQ Candlestick patterns was extremely bullish over the last three days with a island reversal to the upside. However, I did not see the same on the other indices. The negative part is we are at the 200-day MA resistance on the indices, so we are not necessarily out of the woods yet. Since the half cur rate in the short term interest rates should provide relief to the markets to the effect that the fed will cut interest rates if necessary, I believe the fear in the the dry up in liquity will not be a fear for next week. We also have a lot of shorts to unwind. I will be washing if the unwinding of shorts will also cause more bullishiness in the markets. At the moment, I would be scared if I was short..... Barry

[Wombat]

Fidelity also has FDLXX which is a US Treasury money market. That's where I put my money. I thought it would be safer than their government one.

[redlocks11]

Mike,

Can you link your Fidelity account to your local bank account? Usually you can do this via an electronic transfer between the two. More and more brokers are offering this option. That way at times when you have a large cash balance you can transfer it to your local bank and at least get the FDIC insurance. Then when you are ready to trade again you can transfer it back to Fidelity.

At TDAmeritrade you can do transfers yourself using their Internet website without human intervention.

----------

I called Fidelity about using a government MM fund instead of their default cash reserve fund. They told me it can't be done. Their default cash reserve fund has bank CDs, MBS, corporate bonds, etc. Nothing in it is quaranteed.

Schwab has a U.S. Treasury only money market fund you can choose for your default money market fund and also has a "Money Link" electronic transfer option to move money back and forth from account to local bank account.

Schwab also had a system slowdown on Thurs. that meant people got trades in late or couldn't trade at all. or access money in money market funds. They say "slowdown" or "unavailability" was due to trying to increase system capacity in the morning. Still sounds suspicious to me.

Redlocks 11

http://bigcharts.mar...&mocktick=1.gif

Intraday - in the bull market stocks made plateaus at the highs.. you had all day to get out. Now we're in a bear market and we get "Inverted V" tops... you had 2 min. to get the top tick on Friday... and guess who got those? The floor brokers and pit traders...


VOLUME -
Going DOWN on ballistic volume and up on lighter...
http://bigcharts.mar...&mocktick=1.gif

5 years of being trained to buy the dip can leave you a little callous to what's really going on. This is final liquidation folks. You just watch next week and see how much time there is to get out when a stock makes it's fibonacci target... you better be out in a NY minute, before the NYers on the floor beat you to it !!


I really have a hard time understanding all the bullishness...The fed hasn't saved anything. And this is one time you BETTER have a command of fundamentals... and that starts with reading the fine print on how your cash is handled at your broker !!

I called Fidelity about using a government MM fund instead of their default cash reserve fund. They told me it can't be done. Their default cash reserve fund has bank CDs, MBS, corporate bonds, etc. Nothing in it is quaranteed.

[SemiBizz]

Correction or Beginning of a Downtrend?

[skyymaster]

Fidelity also has FDLXX which is a US Treasury money market. That's where I put my money. I thought it would be safer than their government one.

Be Sure to read the Risk! On all of their mm, it says pretty much this:

Risk
Interest rate increases can cause the price of a money market security to decrease. An investment in the fund is not insured or guaranteed by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation or any other government agency. Although the fund seeks to preserve the value of your investment at $1.00 per share, it is possible to lose money by investing in the fund. The rate of income will vary from day to day, generally reflecting changes in short-term interest rates. A decline in the credit quality of an issuer or the provider of credit support or a maturity-shortening structure for a security can cause the price of a money market security to decrease. It is important to note that neither the fund nor its yield is guaranteed by the U.S. Government. Transactions may reduce your yield.

Correction or Beginning of a Downtrend?

As always, excellent analysis !

[Venatici]

...

and i have seen no evidence in data that US growth is going below 2 per cent

so "fundamentally" not much has changed compared to some weeks ago - only thing that has changed is the media's focus on it...

If nothing has changed why did the fed intervened? I am sure they would rather be enjoying their summer holidays... Then having emergency meetings on "not much changed"

NASDAQ Candlestick patterns was extremely bullish over the last three days with a island reversal to the upside. However, I did not see the same on the other indices. The negative part is we are at the 200-day MA resistance on the indices, so we are not necessarily out of the woods yet.

Since the half cur rate in the short term interest rates should provide relief to the markets to the effect that the fed will cut interest rates if necessary, I believe the fear in the the dry up in liquity will not be a fear for next week. We also have a lot of shorts to unwind. I will be washing if the unwinding of shorts will also cause more bullishiness in the markets.

At the moment, I would be scared if I was short.....


Barry

Are you scared of being long?

[SemiBizz]

From Bloomberg.com...

Bernanke's `Rookie Mistake' Forces Fed to Shift Focus to Market

Aug. 20 (Bloomberg) -- Federal Reserve policy makers, who declared that inflation was their paramount challenge just two weeks ago, have been forced to make financial-market stability the trigger for changes in interest rates.

By lowering the discount rate and issuing a statement conceding threats to the economy, Federal Open Market Committee members effectively ripped up the economic-outlook statement from their Aug. 7 meeting. Some economists describe the about- face, coming after months of assurances that the subprime- mortgage rout was contained, as Chairman Ben S. Bernanke's first serious error since taking office last year.

``It was a rookie mistake,'' said Kenneth Thomas, a finance professor at the University of Pennsylvania's Wharton School in Philadelphia. The Fed ``underestimated liquidity needs'' of investors and the fallout from the housing recession, he said, adding, ``This demonstrates the difference between book-smart and street-smart.''

(more at link)

Edited by SemiBizz, 19 August 2007 - 06:27 PM.