9 replies to this topic

[ogm]

Chart 1.... Wells Fargo... one of the largest banks and largest Mortgage lenders in the country...
Hits all time highs on Friday. Long term chart is solid as a rock.

Chart 2 and 3 .... US Monetary base ( Doesn't it look a little like WFC long term chart ? )
Notice the spikes around Y2K event and 9/11. Think we can't do another spike if
needed ?

Chart 4 CME Composite Housing Index Futures (CME Housing futures are cash-settled to a weighted
composite index of U.S. real estate prices)
if you look at that link.. There is Miami and Los Angeles... but there is Also Boston and
San Francisco... you can't paint it all with one brush.. and the Composite average isn't looking
too bad.


Give it a shot, explain. Start with why WFC stock is hitting all time highs .....

http://www.investmen...d_in_the_us.htm

Edited by ogm, 19 August 2007 - 08:36 AM.

[pdx5]

1. Wells Fargo is one of the banks in minority who has been more ---stringent in handing out loans. How is the overall banking sector ---behaving? That might be more significant. 2&3. The spike in monetary base post-911 and 40 year record low ---interest rates is what started the credit and housing bubbles. ---You want more spikes at this juncture? That would be the cure? 4. All real-estate is local. Ofcourse there will be islands of high demand ---and high prices. But you want to overlook the fact that for the first ---time since the great depression housing values have declined? We ---are talking about national averages, not San Fran. What happens --- in the nation overall will certainly affect national economy. And ---there are Billions of dollars worth of mortgages on schedule to ---require higher payments due to ARMS within the next 2 years. I do not want to or can guarantee a stock market debacle here, but you have to be foolhardy to ignore the situation. High caution is warranted IMHO.

Edited by pdx5, 19 August 2007 - 09:49 AM.

[thespookyone]

Do you live in the U.S.? I ask because my friends in Canada seem to get spoon fed info on their media-stating a much better economic situation than is truly now happening in the US.

[eminimee]

Do you live in the U.S.? I ask because my friends in Canada seem to get spoon fed info on their media-stating a much better economic situation than is truly now happening in the US.

That maybe true......we wouldn't be able to handle those oversized shovels used by the US networks...

[ogm]

Do you live in the U.S.? I ask because my friends in Canada seem to get spoon fed info on their media-stating a much better economic situation than is truly now happening in the US.

Yes, I live in the US...

So tell me what exactly horrible things are happening here ?

[thespookyone]

Do you live in the U.S.? I ask because my friends in Canada seem to get spoon fed info on their media-stating a much better economic situation than is truly now happening in the US.

Yes, I live in the US...

So tell me what exactly horrible things are happening here ?

Well, I guess if you live here-you may have noticed "a bit" of inflation, or possibly "a small drop" in the value of peoples home equity. Maybe you noticed that the nations largest employer is now Walmart (low pay and NO health insurance provided). Maybe you noticed that credit card companies are raising rates for almost all borrowers(icluding ones with 780 FICA scores and virtually no debt), not just subprime. Maybe you noticed that 35% of homes were being bought by subprime buyers that are no longer in the market, or that homebuilders are getting absolutely crushed here. You could have noticed that retailers are having " a bit" of trouble. Did you notice corporate profits rose less last quarter than they have in a number of years? I guess outside of all that-everything is "just peachy" LOL. I'll pass on the kool-aid, thanks.

[thespookyone]

Do you live in the U.S.? I ask because my friends in Canada seem to get spoon fed info on their media-stating a much better economic situation than is truly now happening in the US.

That maybe true......we wouldn't be able to handle those oversized shovels used by the US networks...

Probably not. I guess what folks in both our countries would find the most repulsive is simple truth.

[ogm]

Do you live in the U.S.? I ask because my friends in Canada seem to get spoon fed info on their media-stating a much better economic situation than is truly now happening in the US.

Yes, I live in the US...

So tell me what exactly horrible things are happening here ?

Well, I guess if you live here-you may have noticed "a bit" of inflation, or possibly "a small drop" in the value of peoples home equity. Maybe you noticed that the nations largest employer is now Walmart (low pay and NO health insurance provided). Maybe you noticed that credit card companies are raising rates for almost all borrowers(icluding ones with 780 FICA scores and virtually no debt), not just subprime. Maybe you noticed that 35% of homes were being bought by subprime buyers that are no longer in the market, or that homebuilders are getting absolutely crushed here. You could have noticed that retailers are having " a bit" of trouble. Did you notice corporate profits rose less last quarter than they have in a number of years? I guess outside of all that-everything is "just peachy" LOL. I'll pass on the kool-aid, thanks.

Small drop in home equity ? since when ? 5 days ago or 5 years ago or 20 years ago ? Its all relative.
Homebuilders are getting crushed because they overbuilt. Supply and demand. But more importantly they bought too much land that is choking their books, thats the biggest problem there.

Did corporate profits shrink ?

Inflation ? When there was no inflation ? Once again, compare prices 100 years ago 30 years ago and now... Inflation is a fact of life.

How about personal incomes up 6% year over year as measured by tax receipts. Or that doesn't count ?

Yes, economy is cyclical... surprize.... Sometimes its stronger, sometimes its weaker... no big deal.

But we're talking about mass hysteria here... I think the cause of it is information overload. And people just more inclined to concentrate on the bad news..... Isn't that why the regular media is flooded with the stream of bad news ? Because they figured out that its what people watch ? Not just stock market news but bad news about everything. The shocking stories of "TRUTH" ! The more shocking the better.

And there is a whole industry of doom and gloom end of the world market forecasters. People love it, they read this stuff, they pay subrtscriptions. They all want to know the shocking "TRUTH". In the meanwhile they have nice jobs, get decent paycheck and hoping to ask their boss for another raise soon. And most of them live in the house that has doubled in price since they bought it 10-15 years ago with 12% mortgage, which they refinanced 2 years ago at 5-6%.

Edited by ogm, 19 August 2007 - 02:48 PM.

[SemiBizz]

http://bigcharts.mar...&mocktick=1.gif



Sure, everything is just fine.

[ogm]

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/charts/big.chart?symb=cfc&compidx=aaaaa:0&ma=0&maval=9&uf=0&lf=1&lf2=0&lf3=0&type=4&size=2&state=9&sid=1426&style=320&time=5&freq=1&comp=NO_SYMBOL_CHOSEN&nosettings=1&rand=6691&mocktick=1.gif



Sure, everything is just fine.

Yes, some corporations fail and some become big winners.....

And your point is ?