11 replies to this topic

[SandStorm]

Last night I saw the equity p /c dropped off. volume dropped off. vix dropped off. odd-lot short at lows. OEX p /c creeping up. I'll say the conditions are ripe for a retest of the lows. What say you?

Edited by SandStorm, 21 August 2007 - 02:03 PM.

[selecto]

I say no. Daily vix and vxn 5 sma just now turning down to confirm the buy.

Edited by selecto, 21 August 2007 - 02:06 PM.

[hiker]

I am with selecto for now...just flipped short to long.

http://www.traders-t...?...;blogid=26

Edited by hiker, 21 August 2007 - 02:07 PM.

[Jnavin]

Nobody noticing that oil is back below $70.

[SandStorm]

I am also watching Yen. If yen rally to test its recent high, it will almost be a certainty we test the lows.

[ogm]

Last night I saw the equity p /c dropped off.
volume dropped off.
vix dropped off.
odd-lot short at lows.
OEX p /c creeping up.

I'll say the conditions are ripe for a retest of the lows. What say you?

I say that the markets will be meandering in some sort of a range without any dramatic moves. Any selloff will be bought. Any strong rally will be sold.

One one hand stocks are cheap and present a lot of value here. Plus very bearish long term sentiment is a support.

On the other hand the uncertainty about resolution of the credit issue will keep a lid on strong rallies, unless the clarity appears.


We already priced in the end of the world, so the risks are mostly to the upside, but it may take some time.

Thats why anything that has clean balance sheet and pays good dividend is a solid bet here.
The other option is something with long term story and good premiums on options like FLSR...
You can write calls on both of these kinds of stocks because they will practicaly always bounce back to some sort of a range, and just collect premiums and dividends, while the market meanders around before the setup is right for the next leg of the long term bull.

Traders here will be most likely chopped up into little pieces by confusing ST trends.

To put it into perspective.. this is a consolidation on weekly charts with the background of monthly/quarterly uptrends.

Edited by ogm, 21 August 2007 - 02:11 PM.

[bliss just missed]

I am also watching Yen. If yen rally to test its recent high, it will almost be a certainty we test the lows.

Where do you get the data for the yen...is it real time or delay? Thanks

[selecto]

If you have paid for real time, you can get intraday $XJY at Stockcharts. You can get daily $USD:$XJY there also.

[hiker]

$xjy is symbol at SC.

[SandStorm]

I am also watching Yen. If yen rally to test its recent high, it will almost be a certainty we test the lows.

Where do you get the data for the yen...is it real time or delay? Thanks

I got mine r/t via tradestation.

I am watching USDJPY, EURJPY, GBPJPY, but they all looked the same lately, all down against yen big since July. It's carry-trade concern mentioned lately.

Last night I saw the equity p /c dropped off.
volume dropped off.
vix dropped off.
odd-lot short at lows.
OEX p /c creeping up.

I'll say the conditions are ripe for a retest of the lows. What say you?

I say that the markets will be meandering in some sort of a range without any dramatic moves. Any selloff will be bought. Any strong rally will be sold.

One one hand stocks are cheap and present a lot of value here. Plus very bearish long term sentiment is a support.

On the other hand the uncertainty about resolution of the credit issue will keep a lid on strong rallies, unless the clarity appears.


We already priced in the end of the world, so the risks are mostly to the upside, but it may take some time.

Thats why anything that has clean balance sheet and pays good dividend is a solid bet here.
The other option is something with long term story and good premiums on options like FLSR...
You can write calls on both of these kinds of stocks because they will practicaly always bounce back to some sort of a range, and just collect premiums and dividends, while the market meanders around before the setup is right for the next leg of the long term bull.

Traders here will be most likely chopped up into little pieces by confusing ST trends.

To put it into perspective.. this is a consolidation on weekly charts with the background of monthly/quarterly uptrends.

You'll probably be right even though I am betting a retest. My strategy at the moment is sell strength and hedge with directional trades in case there is a breakout.