10 replies to this topic

[airedale88]

Hurst cyclic model... sigma el(sum of all longer cycles plus fundamentals) up 18 yr up 9 yr down 4.5 yr bottomed, turning up 18 month, bottomed, turning up 9 month, bottomed, turning up 20 week, bottomed, turning up 10 week, bottomed, turning up 5 week, bottomed, turning up all harmonic cycles of 4.5 yrs and smaller have just bottomed. new highs coming.

[Cirrus]

Hurst cyclic model...

sigma el(sum of all longer cycles plus fundamentals) up

18 yr up

9 yr down

4.5 yr bottomed, turning up

18 month, bottomed, turning up

9 month, bottomed, turning up

20 week, bottomed, turning up

10 week, bottomed, turning up

5 week, bottomed, turning up

all harmonic cycles of 4.5 yrs
and smaller have just bottomed.
new highs coming.

Thanks Airedale. This could be the case with the cycles. I'm going to wait for internals to give a signal. I'm watching price, group performance and most of all NHs and NLs. Given the down momentum we have I would expect another attempt by the bears. The Willshire 5000 clocked nearly 1800 NLs a few trading days ago which is about 3 times any count we've seen since early 2003. It doesn't have to happen but I think the high odds play is they try and sell 'em off again.

[blitz99]

Hurst cyclic model...

sigma el(sum of all longer cycles plus fundamentals) up

18 yr up

9 yr down

4.5 yr bottomed, turning up

18 month, bottomed, turning up

9 month, bottomed, turning up

20 week, bottomed, turning up

10 week, bottomed, turning up

5 week, bottomed, turning up

all harmonic cycles of 4.5 yrs
and smaller have just bottomed.
new highs coming.

Thanks Airedale. This could be the case with the cycles. I'm going to wait for internals to give a signal. I'm watching price, group performance and most of all NHs and NLs. Given the down momentum we have I would expect another attempt by the bears. The Willshire 5000 clocked nearly 1800 NLs a few trading days ago which is about 3 times any count we've seen since early 2003. It doesn't have to happen but I think the high odds play is they try and sell 'em off again.

Airedale i would like to think your cycles are right but for the past 100 yrs the 4 yr cycle has never corrected less than 12%.I will have to wait to see if that low is really in place.

[Tor]

Great work air and thanks for sharing. I am thinking we get another move down, in the spx to 1360 target. could such a move fit with your cycle work? All the best to you,

[ogm]

And I'm thinking so many people are in total disbelief that the lows are probably in for good.

[Cirrus]

I think the lows being in is a definite possiblity. There is definitely a wall of worry over this market while the mortgage stuff unfolds. I can see stuff like tech and a few other sectors grabbing plenty of the capital flows and leading. I still like energy, too, but shoulder season is right around the corner.

[BearItch]

Aire: Are you long here then? I thought you got stopped out. If you are not long, what is your plan to get long? Thanks for sharing.

[Vector]

Aire

Nice call on the 4.5 yr cycle! Cycles rule.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NYH...id=p68926463211

-0.30 beat the 9/11 and July 2002 lows. Everybody pretty much threw the baby out with the bath water the last couple of weeks. They'll regret it later for sure.

COT, STEM model and Pitbull all still hugely bullish here too.

Huge investment opp staring everybody in the face right now. Many will once again miss it, pretty much guaranteed they will repeat the same mistakes made at all prior major lows.

Tick tock!

Edited by Vector, 21 August 2007 - 08:56 PM.

[Caduceus]

Aire

Nice call on the 4.5 yr cycle! Cycles rule.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NYH...id=p68926463211

-0.30 beat the 9/11 and July 2002 lows. Everybody pretty much threw the baby out with the bath water the last couple of weeks. They'll regret it later for sure.

COT, STEM model and Pitbull all still hugely bullish here too.

Huge investment opp staring everybody in the face right now. Many will once again miss it, pretty much guaranteed they will repeat the same mistakes made at all prior major lows.

Tick tock!

Vector,

I posted an update of your indicator on the 18th. There is a chart of the 1998 extreme and of the longterm oversold readings from this indicator. http://www.traders-t...?...c=75012&hl=



Airdale,

Thanks for posting, you are one of the best around in my opinion.

I do not follow cycles or Hurst as closely as you. Question? could we see a lower low in the latter half of the year without invalidating this analysis? If we saw -10%+ lower than this low would that change anything?

My guess is that it wouldn't necessarily change the "cyclic" structure.

Any thoughts are greatly appreciated.

C,

[airedale88]

Great work air and thanks for sharing.

I am thinking we get another move down, in the spx to 1360 target. could such a move fit with your cycle work?

All the best to you,

i think any test of the low will hold well above the 1360 area. most likely between the lower 2% to 4% envelope. that 21 day ma around 1460 should be resistence. i am flat right now, looking to get heavy long on a dip to those lower envelopes. if we blast thru the 21 day ma, i may end up chasing the darn thing.