cycles
#1
Posted 21 August 2007 - 06:02 PM
Outspeaks the Squire, "Give room, I pray,
And hie the terriers in;
The warriors of the fight are they,
And every fight they win".
Ring-Ouzel, England
#2
Posted 21 August 2007 - 06:12 PM
Hurst cyclic model...
sigma el(sum of all longer cycles plus fundamentals) up
18 yr up
9 yr down
4.5 yr bottomed, turning up
18 month, bottomed, turning up
9 month, bottomed, turning up
20 week, bottomed, turning up
10 week, bottomed, turning up
5 week, bottomed, turning up
all harmonic cycles of 4.5 yrs
and smaller have just bottomed.
new highs coming.
Thanks Airedale. This could be the case with the cycles. I'm going to wait for internals to give a signal. I'm watching price, group performance and most of all NHs and NLs. Given the down momentum we have I would expect another attempt by the bears. The Willshire 5000 clocked nearly 1800 NLs a few trading days ago which is about 3 times any count we've seen since early 2003. It doesn't have to happen but I think the high odds play is they try and sell 'em off again.
#3
Posted 21 August 2007 - 06:21 PM
Hurst cyclic model...
sigma el(sum of all longer cycles plus fundamentals) up
18 yr up
9 yr down
4.5 yr bottomed, turning up
18 month, bottomed, turning up
9 month, bottomed, turning up
20 week, bottomed, turning up
10 week, bottomed, turning up
5 week, bottomed, turning up
all harmonic cycles of 4.5 yrs
and smaller have just bottomed.
new highs coming.
Thanks Airedale. This could be the case with the cycles. I'm going to wait for internals to give a signal. I'm watching price, group performance and most of all NHs and NLs. Given the down momentum we have I would expect another attempt by the bears. The Willshire 5000 clocked nearly 1800 NLs a few trading days ago which is about 3 times any count we've seen since early 2003. It doesn't have to happen but I think the high odds play is they try and sell 'em off again.
Airedale i would like to think your cycles are right but for the past 100 yrs the 4 yr cycle has never corrected less than 12%.I will have to wait to see if that low is really in place.
#4
Posted 21 August 2007 - 06:26 PM
The future is 90% present and 10% vision.
#5
Posted 21 August 2007 - 06:32 PM
#6
Posted 21 August 2007 - 07:05 PM
#7
Posted 21 August 2007 - 08:08 PM
#8
Posted 21 August 2007 - 08:49 PM
Nice call on the 4.5 yr cycle! Cycles rule.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NYH...id=p68926463211
-0.30 beat the 9/11 and July 2002 lows. Everybody pretty much threw the baby out with the bath water the last couple of weeks. They'll regret it later for sure.
COT, STEM model and Pitbull all still hugely bullish here too.
Huge investment opp staring everybody in the face right now. Many will once again miss it, pretty much guaranteed they will repeat the same mistakes made at all prior major lows.
Tick tock!
Edited by Vector, 21 August 2007 - 08:56 PM.
#9
Posted 22 August 2007 - 01:06 AM
Aire
Nice call on the 4.5 yr cycle! Cycles rule.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NYH...id=p68926463211
-0.30 beat the 9/11 and July 2002 lows. Everybody pretty much threw the baby out with the bath water the last couple of weeks. They'll regret it later for sure.
COT, STEM model and Pitbull all still hugely bullish here too.
Huge investment opp staring everybody in the face right now. Many will once again miss it, pretty much guaranteed they will repeat the same mistakes made at all prior major lows.
Tick tock!
Vector,
I posted an update of your indicator on the 18th. There is a chart of the 1998 extreme and of the longterm oversold readings from this indicator. http://www.traders-t...?...c=75012&hl=
Airdale,
Thanks for posting, you are one of the best around in my opinion.
I do not follow cycles or Hurst as closely as you. Question? could we see a lower low in the latter half of the year without invalidating this analysis? If we saw -10%+ lower than this low would that change anything?
My guess is that it wouldn't necessarily change the "cyclic" structure.
Any thoughts are greatly appreciated.
C,
#10
Posted 22 August 2007 - 05:23 AM
Great work air and thanks for sharing.
I am thinking we get another move down, in the spx to 1360 target. could such a move fit with your cycle work?
All the best to you,
i think any test of the low will hold well above the 1360 area. most likely between the lower 2% to 4% envelope. that 21 day ma around 1460 should be resistence. i am flat right now, looking to get heavy long on a dip to those lower envelopes. if we blast thru the 21 day ma, i may end up chasing the darn thing.
Outspeaks the Squire, "Give room, I pray,
And hie the terriers in;
The warriors of the fight are they,
And every fight they win".
Ring-Ouzel, England