12 replies to this topic

[ogm]

Was gone last couple days, but not much has changed. Market looking stronger and stronger and pessimism keeps pushing record levels. Even looking at tonite's polls its the same picture as we had for the past few weeks. Bears dominating the polls and the market isn't giving in.

[SandStorm]

Don't be fooled by the strength that has no volume backing. The rally off the recent lows could just be the product of volatility expansion. In other words, what shoud have been a small dead-cat bounce off the unfinished IT decline is being sigma magnified and looking like a new IT advance. I am thinking it might be '04 style swings that don't truly bottom until several months later. I still have my full short positions except that I am now hedged. I will be trading my hedge leg short-term while leaving the short positions open. I gotta see how this plays out.

[eminimee]

Careful of who ya callin' bears there pilgrim...there are those looking for a pull back that may just set up another 100 spx points north. (ya have to imagine a John Wayne flare)

Edited by Teaparty, 25 August 2007 - 09:34 AM.

[ogm]

Careful of who ya callin' bears there pilgrim...there are those looking for a pull back that may just set up another 100 spx points north.
(ya have to imagine a John Wayne flare)

Pullback ? ... maybe

But if you look at the polls we have been stuck in the same mode the whole rally... Bears > bulls by a wide margin.

Conversation still mostly revolves around the end of the world, and a "pullback" ... we got 0.25 dow points pullback so far

At the same time internals momentum is looking very good. ITBM/ITVM, MCO's, Summations everything in an upward move.

Yes, there may be a pullback... but ....

[JAP]

Don't be fooled by the strength that has no volume backing. The rally off the recent lows could just be the product of volatility expansion. In other words, what shoud have been a small dead-cat bounce off the unfinished IT decline is being sigma magnified and looking like a new IT advance. I am thinking it might be '04 style swings that don't truly bottom until several months later.

Exactly. The market going up on decreasing volume. Funny how most bulls here like to ignore that.

[eminimee]

" Funny how most bulls here like to ignore that. " ....even funnier how time after time low volume rallies have started every leg up.....different this time?....who knows...but don't count on it.

[emdee]

Exactly. The market going up on decreasing volume. Funny how most bulls here like to ignore that.

The volume at the end of July and well into August may best be described by the word "capitulatory" as it was indeed quite massive.

The volume we are seeing in the Nasdaq now is no different than the levels we have seen at every bottom since March 2003. As the buyers become more confident that a bottom is in, the volume typically rises. How many times have we seen da boyz get the train rolling on vapors? From what I have seen it seems to be the rule rather than the exception.

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$COMPQ&p=D&st=2003-01-01&en=2004-12-31&i=p63667404640&a=115266401&r=3805.png

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$COMPQ&p=D&st=2005-01-01&en=2006-12-31&i=p77119886449&a=115265078&r=5353.png

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$COMPQ&p=D&st=2007-01-01&i=p64823606200&a=115266613&r=1081.png

Fwiw...Mike

[relax]

Could not have said it better myself Brickie Good to see you and your charts back again

[SandStorm]

Don't be fooled by the strength that has no volume backing. The rally off the recent lows could just be the product of volatility expansion. In other words, what shoud have been a small dead-cat bounce off the unfinished IT decline is being sigma magnified and looking like a new IT advance. I am thinking it might be '04 style swings that don't truly bottom until several months later.

Exactly. The market going up on decreasing volume. Funny how most bulls here like to ignore that.

Decreasing volume tells me we are in the bottoming process at best, which is prone to sharp reversals and pull backs. It's just too early to declare bullish biz back as usual. And there is also the possibility we have not bottomed yet. This is what I believe and that's based on funnymental as some here like to call it. We should be able to get out of this credit mess given Ben and Paulson are doing all they can. But no way we are going back to biz as usual in the credit market, either. The cost of credit is higher with stricter qualification. That has to be a drag on econ. It's takes time to resolve the negative psychology because this is a pretty big mess.

[mss]

It's takes time to resolve the negative psychology because this is a pretty big mess.

Just needs the media to start a new tale, and everything will improve.