6 replies to this topic

[Rogerdodger]

From Mike Burk's stuff at Safehaven:

[Rogerdodger]

Just for fun:
Looks like the SPX needs to get back above the 50ma and the August high (1500+) to keep the comparison going.
We have already penetrated the 200 and crossed back up.
But that did not happen in 1987 until the crash.

Edited by Rogerdodger, 25 August 2007 - 03:46 PM.

[James Quillian]

There some big difference today. The economy depends on the stock market continuing to rise. That wasn't the case in 1987. Thus there is a dogged determination to avoid not just a crash but even a correction. We have what amounts to a promise to use any available tool to keep the moving higher. Any vulnerability will draw intervention.

Edited by James Quillian, 25 August 2007 - 05:33 PM.

[humble1]

pretty amazing, i say. especially in light of my "eclipses and crashes post". of course, 1987 was one of the examples. well, we will know soon. bernanke's talk at jackson hole on thursday may be the trigger. this will be the most widely watched fed head speech i can remember. the market wants and expects a fed funds cut. but bernanke could easily argue that his surgical strike approach allows the fed to focus on its main goal of inflation fighting. can bernanke really cut until the econ numbers get weaker ? is he going to pre-emptive strike ? i say NO, fwiw.

Edited by humble1, 25 August 2007 - 07:27 PM.

[bigtrader]

Still wonder why everyone looks in the mirror. Sure, history repeats? But always?

[Rogerdodger]

There some big difference today.

The worst thing I ever do is to try to make "now" " then".
It may rhyme but it is not the same.

Entropy:
Statistical mechanics explains entropy as the amount of uncertainty (or "mixedupness" in the phrase of Gibbs) which remains about a system, after its observable macroscopic properties have been taken into account. For a given set of macroscopic quantities, like temperature and volume, the entropy measures the degree to which the probability of the system is spread out over different possible quantum states. The more states available to the system with higher probability, and thus the greater the entropy. In essence, the most general interpretation of entropy is as a measure of our ignorance about a system. The equilibrium state of a system maximizes the entropy because we have lost all information about the initial conditions except for the conserved quantities; maximizing the entropy maximizes our ignorance about the details of the system.[12]

I'm not sure what any of that means exactly except it sounds pretty intelligent and I think it means the volume has increased and the temperature is cooler today than in 1987 and the FED is mixed-up, so there will be no crash, unless you happen to live in one of those "quantum states", like California.

Edited by Rogerdodger, 25 August 2007 - 08:10 PM.

[Trend-Signals]

[b] This is an interesting comparison since the anticipation for 1987 or 1929 crash was in progress during the recent correction.

Note the "CLIMATIC VOLUMES" 10/19 - 20, 1987 which is showing the similar climactic volume action on 8/16. However we had higher volumes going into 8/16/07 which is comparable to 10/19-20/87 volumes.

However, we had higher volumes going into 8/16/07 since many were already expecting a crash while 1987 was not.


Because of the fear, the shorts could further fuel the market.

Just for fun:
Looks like the SPX needs to get back above the 50ma and the August high (1500+) to keep the comparison going.
We have already penetrated the 200 and crossed back up.
But that did not happen in 1987 until the crash.