3 replies to this topic

[Rogerdodger]

I love this stuff. It sure beats playing chess. So many more possible moves and strategies.
THIS IS WAR!
On the right side we see:
A trendline break...on low volume, which could be a tactical trap and it could possibly see a back-kiss test.
A multi-month pop in sentiment similar to the end of May pop, which should slow any further advance s/t.
A nearing 3/4 moon on Sept. 4th. Those have spooky implications for some sort of low.
And of course, 6 days of strength beginning at the open Thursday, August 30th.
Youmast said "Sell Monday and buy Wednesday" but I think he's still KGB and THIS IS WAR!.
[img]http://tbn0.google.com/images?q=tbn:LZxMr8chKzOMIM:http://www.bloglubbock.com/custimages/spy%20vs%20spy.bmp.png[/img]



[img]http://img407.imageshack.us/img407/6658/2007a23rdchartmw7.jpg[/img]

Edited by Rogerdodger, 26 August 2007 - 01:22 PM.

[ogm]

Just curious, what sentiment does that chart reflect ? I see heavily bearish sentiment at multi year extremes. Even if you look at the sentiment trader gauge... ST sentiment may have poped, but LT sentiment is deep in the pessimism zone. Inconsistency. As if people are saying.. "yeah, its probably going to pop another couple days, but its all just a bear market rally, because long term we are doomed anyway". Same deal with the message board polls here. Bears just aren't giving up. Still expecting this thing to start dropping any day now. What do you think of this small fact... in Aug 2004 we had 2 days in a row of Equity put call over 1. This time we had 3 days of EPC > 1. These 2 times are the only occurances of this kind in many years. And this small rally didn't resolve any of this. Doom and Gloom is as thick as ever. Almost every message board/advisor report I read today says we're ST overbought, pullback, retest, bear market, accumulating shorts ..... and so on. Mistrust and disbelief are ramparant. People are questioning the low volume. Of course there is low volume, the market is taking off with as little people on board as possible. I seriously doubt we get a large pullback here. Not with pessimism so thick. Maybe a 2-3 days flattish consolidation that will be massively shorted, just to be blown out of the water a few days later.

Edited by ogm, 26 August 2007 - 01:05 PM.

[Rogerdodger]

Maybe a 2-3 days flattish consolidation that will be massively shorted, just to be blown out of the water a few days later.

I'm leaning the same way but then again, I don't trust my own sentiment.
I was just thinking that if we got anywhere near 1450-1460 it would probably be a buy since there is some support around and it would amount to a back kiss of that downtrend line.

There is an old rule: Don't fight the FED (especially when they wet their pants)
(I just made up that last part.)

Edited by Rogerdodger, 26 August 2007 - 01:19 PM.

[davewooldridge]

What is the lower indicator with the bullish and bearish levels/ Sentiment, cycles, moon? Thanks Dave