10 replies to this topic

[blustar]

Tuesday August 28th is a Gann 8/16 day low. I expect QQQQ 46.80 and SPX 1437/38 to be tested before we see a huge rally into the 16 day top due Thursday August 30th with the 49.72/73 QQQQ and SPX 1520's to be tested. The pattern is then bearish into the next low due Sept 10, with new lows expected. If we barely take out the lows of Aug 16th, I would expect new highs by mid October. A crash into Sept 10th would expect a retest in October. I expect the former.

[relax]

how did you get sep 10? a specific number of trading days? tomorrow is 8 trading days after the low - which other number of trading days do you use for lows thanks for sharing!

[blustar]

Sept 10 is approximate based on the 8/16 day cycle. It is also close to the 4.5 year cycle low from March 12, 2003. The perfect 4.5 year low would be due Wed. Sept 12, 2007, which is within +/- 2 days of the 8 day cycle low due Sept 10. We could hit SPX 1260 and QQQQ 39 by that date and still rally hard into October, possibly making a double top and then down hard into the end of the year or early/mid Jan 2008.

[youmast]

blu, I guess we're just dancing at 1475 strike as I thought (see my prev questions to you)....

There're no 10-20% swings, no 1500's, no 1200's.... Nothing at all.

Please let me know what "XYZ" count do you see on your chart? What crash are you talking about?

Forget about high volatility. Be conservative. I see nothing bearish yet. Just healthy consolidation.

[NAV]

blu, You need a volatility of 50+ for your forecast to pan out. Pretty wild stuff. Good luck.

[blustar]

This is based on E-Wave irregular flat and cycles. My guess is wave "w" of B is not yet complete, but is itself made up of a 'w'-'x'-'y' with 'x' being August 16 and 'y' August 30. Wave "x" would be Sept 10th or thereabouts and a .382 retrace as well as downtrend lines point to 1260 SPX and QQQQ 39 by around Sept 10. I think volatility is something we had better get used to.

[blustar]

XYZ counts are for bullish e-flags. I believe these are bearish e-flags and they are counted w-x-y. They can be very complex and that is what I believe we are seeing. A move to the 1520's by Thursday would be very bearish setting up for a move to 1260 by Sept 10. The next expectation would be a strong move back up by mid October setting up for a move to a lot lower prices by Dec/Jan.

[youmast]

... A move to the 1520's by Thursday would be very bearish setting up for a move to 1260 by Sept 10.

bearish? if we move to 1520 by Thus, then forget about bears till Sept expiration.

print it out and post it in front of your computer.

[Specul8]

Tuesday August 28th is a Gann 8/16 day low. I expect QQQQ 46.80 and SPX 1437/38 to be tested before we see a huge rally into the 16 day top due Thursday August 30th with the 49.72/73 QQQQ and SPX 1520's to be tested. The pattern is then bearish into the next low due Sept 10, with new lows expected. If we barely take out the lows of Aug 16th, I would expect new highs by mid October.

A crash into Sept 10th would expect a retest in October. I expect the former.

Just how reliable are these Gann turn dates with respect to direction and timing? For instance on the Bradley turn dates there is a provision of +/- 4 days, I would expect the Gann dates to be spot on but how frequently are they correct regarding market direction?

[blustar]

Re: Gann turn dates. 8 day cycle can be off +/- 2 days. 4 day cycle +/- 1 days, 16 day of +/- 4 days. Generally, they tend toward equality at some point. Last cycle top to top ran 17 days on the SPX and if that were true this time we could see a top on Friday instead of Thursday as well we could see the low expected Tuesday more toward Wednesday. The market looks vulnerable here to some selling into perhaps Wednesday from what I'm seeing right now and perhaps lower than anticipated earlier, maybe even to the 1411 area on the SPX. That would mean we have a hell rally out of this sell-off in a-b-c manner off the Aug 16 low with 'b' Wednesday (congrats You Mast!) and 'c' Friday (or the following Tuesday). The Sept 10 low could be a day or two later easily as the 4.5 year cycle is due on Sept 12.