9 replies to this topic

[ogm]

So far I'm the only person who voted neutral ( I seriously have no idea what the market will do tomorrow)... and 2 people are bullish. But the bearish stampede is overwhelming. I had CNBC today on all day.. darn, do they sound depressed too. Basicaly the whole world is going to hell in a handbasket and everyone knows about it and positioned for a decline. Sounds a bit too easy.....

[raleigh]

Everyone knows the end is near.

[ogm]

Everyone knows the end is near.

The end of what ?

[James Quillian]

So far I'm the only person who voted neutral ( I seriously have no idea what the market will do tomorrow)... and 2 people are bullish.

But the bearish stampede is overwhelming.

I had CNBC today on all day.. darn, do they sound depressed too.

Basicaly the whole world is going to hell in a handbasket and everyone knows about it and positioned for a decline.

Sounds a bit too easy.....

I have a lot of trouble guaging sentiment right now. I think you are right if you are suggesting that the short term sentiment is bearsish in terms of chatter, although not to the degree that it was 7-10 days ago.
I see the weekly guages like investors intelligence and AAII as mixed. The odd lot differential is very high to the bullish side. (bearish interpretation) Also, odd lot short sales are low now.
Yahoo polls show high expectations for stocks over the next year. TT polls are bearish but these are sometimes a bad fade.

One question we might ask is, what does bearish mean right now? A lot of folks are looking for a correction. Is that bearish?
Very few traders believe as I do that a full fledged bear market is in the offing.
Even fewer believe that the integrity of U.S. capital markets will be severely damaged.
I am not sure if there really are that many long term bears.

[ogm]

I have a lot of trouble guaging sentiment right now. I think you are right if you are suggesting that the short term sentiment is bearsish in terms of chatter, although not to the degree that it was 7-10 days ago.
I see the weekly guages like investors intelligence and AAII as mixed. The odd lot differential is very high to the bullish side. (bearish interpretation) Also, odd lot short sales are low now.
Yahoo polls show high expectations for stocks over the next year. TT polls are bearish but these are sometimes a bad fade.

One question we might ask is, what does bearish mean right now? A lot of folks are looking for a correction. Is that bearish?
Very few traders believe as I do that a full fledged bear market is in the offing.
Even fewer believe that the integrity of U.S. capital markets will be severely damaged.
I am not sure if there really are that many long term bears.

Oh, there is plenty long term bears.

Internet is littered with Doug Nolands, David Tices, Dr.Stools, Mishes, and alike. And they all have cohorts of cult like followers.

I can point you to dozens of websites that profess doom and gloom on daily basis. I'm sure you visited most of them too. In return, can you point me to 1-2 bullishly biased websites ?

Here for example, enjoy the read... Notice this modest board and number of posters/views, comparing to the stool board.
As I said.. these places have cult like following. Ongoing raging discussion about lack of integrity of the US financial system and impending collapse guaranteed.


http://www.capitalst....php?act=SF&f=7


As for the short term... Too many people are leaning on the short side of the market. To the extreme.

I think I'll go with insider buying, global growth, cheap valuations and clean balance sheets instead.

[Trend-Signals]

So far I'm the only person who voted neutral ( I seriously have no idea what the market will do tomorrow)... and 2 people are bullish.

But the bearish stampede is overwhelming.

I had CNBC today on all day.. darn, do they sound depressed too.

Basicaly the whole world is going to hell in a handbasket and everyone knows about it and positioned for a decline.

Sounds a bit too easy.....

~~~

HAVE YOU NOTICED:::

We had a turn day in Mar 2007 bottom, markets are trading at resistances; and trading to upside above the resistances will change bull/bear biases...

Short coverings with existing high short positions.


$NIKK and $KOSPI are trading up.

Nikkei 225 16,332.06 10:30PM ET Up 30.67 (0.19%)

Seoul Composite 1,827.8 11:22PM ET Up 24.77 (1.37%)





Tuesday's event will be the second in three years - Most Americans didn't get a chance to see the year's first total lunar eclipse back in March - but we're in a much better position for the year’s second lunar eclipse, taking place in the wee hours of Tuesday morning.


http://www.stockchar...09398&r=568.png
http://www.stockchar...77535&r=859.png
http://www.stockchar...31079&r=210.png
http://www.stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=60&yr=0&mn=2&dy=17&i=p98670794592&a=79285156&r=938.png
http://www.stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=9&dy=0&i=p22232131775&a=76929034&r=724.png
http://www.stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=W&yr=4&mn=8&dy=0&i=p49229126946&a=78987374&r=825.png
http://www.stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$INDU&p=D&yr=0&mn=10&dy=0&i=p31631774778&a=76966992&r=329.png
http://www.stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$INDU&p=W&yr=4&mn=7&dy=0&i=p06542340040&a=76929550&r=152.png
http://www.stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$COMPQ&p=D&yr=0&mn=8&dy=0&i=p21609042622&a=76909044&r=764.png
http://www.stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$COMPQ&p=W&yr=4&mn=6&dy=0&i=p22094758617&a=77295648&r=443.png

[vulture]

I have a lot of trouble guaging sentiment right now. I think you are right if you are suggesting that the short term sentiment is bearsish in terms of chatter, although not to the degree that it was 7-10 days ago.
I see the weekly guages like investors intelligence and AAII as mixed. The odd lot differential is very high to the bullish side. (bearish interpretation) Also, odd lot short sales are low now.
Yahoo polls show high expectations for stocks over the next year. TT polls are bearish but these are sometimes a bad fade.

One question we might ask is, what does bearish mean right now? A lot of folks are looking for a correction. Is that bearish?
Very few traders believe as I do that a full fledged bear market is in the offing.
Even fewer believe that the integrity of U.S. capital markets will be severely damaged.
I am not sure if there really are that many long term bears.

Oh, there is plenty long term bears.

Internet is littered with Doug Nolands, David Tices, Dr.Stools, Mishes, and alike. And they all have cohorts of cult like followers.

I can point you to dozens of websites that profess doom and gloom on daily basis. I'm sure you visited most of them too. In return, can you point me to 1-2 bullishly biased websites ?

Here for example, enjoy the read... Notice this modest board and number of posters/views, comparing to the stool board.
As I said.. these places have cult like following. Ongoing raging discussion about lack of integrity of the US financial system and impending collapse guaranteed.


http://www.capitalst....php?act=SF&f=7


As for the short term... Too many people are leaning on the short side of the market. To the extreme.

I think I'll go with insider buying, global growth, cheap valuations and clean balance sheets instead.

OGM: In early July, you were as bearish on financials and the overall market as any of the pundits you mentioned above. Since you went long (a good trade it turns out), you seem to have taken issue with anybody who posts a bearish opinion. Maybe it begs the question: Are we better off now (fundamentally, technically, sentiment wise) since the swoon in late July?

[btrade]

So far I'm the only person who voted neutral ( I seriously have no idea what the market will do tomorrow)... and 2 people are bullish.

But the bearish stampede is overwhelming.

I had CNBC today on all day.. darn, do they sound depressed too.

Basicaly the whole world is going to hell in a handbasket and everyone knows about it and positioned for a decline.

Sounds a bit too easy.....

Not all are bears. On Kudlow & Co. they were bragging that the market had already retraced half the loss and that corrections are just normal. They said if people couldn't take 5% volitility then they should invest in coin collecting. The market is great and Goldilocks is alive! If I wasn't already short, I would have been after hearing them discuss how the market is so strong and the sub prime is overblown. Next stop, the moon.

[Trend-Signals]

So far I'm the only person who voted neutral ( I seriously have no idea what the market will do tomorrow)... and 2 people are bullish.

But the bearish stampede is overwhelming.

I had CNBC today on all day.. darn, do they sound depressed too.

Basicaly the whole world is going to hell in a handbasket and everyone knows about it and positioned for a decline.

Sounds a bit too easy.....

FYI, I didn't vote and didn't read the TT posts today until now.

However, I read CNBC reporting the street sentiment is "Economy" worry is worse than "Terrorism" ==> Massive Terror hype ===> LOADED WITH SHORTS NOW.




Market is loaded with Massive Shorts, that is.

[ogm]

OGM: In early July, you were as bearish on financials and the overall market as any of the pundits you mentioned above. Since you went long (a good trade it turns out), you seem to have taken issue with anybody who posts a bearish opinion. Maybe it begs the question: Are we better off now (fundamentally, technically, sentiment wise) since the swoon in late July?

Here is the thing... all of the "fundamental" issues are very well known and publicized by now. The most dire apocalyptic scenarios have been all considered many times by now not only the past few weeks, but over the past few years. The persistent bearishness never left the market since 2002 bottom.
And the only thing the market has managed to accomplished on the downside is a 10% correction so far. Almost half of which was already retraced. The market is saying that there is something out there that is holding things together. I can only guess what it is.

Levels of fear and pessimism are at historic levels. Short positions, $CPC, you name it... Some historic numbers.

I'm a contrarian and a value player. I can't go along with the overcrowded trade. And the short side is one very overcrowded trade. Look at tonite's polls, or the polls over the past week or so. At the same time I see quite a bit of value in the market.

When I was short financials CNBC was talking day after day about how being short financials is the most profitable trade these days and how its working very well. I had no choice but to cover and reconsider.