9 replies to this topic

[ogm]

Just wondering what happened in previous cases when such an extreme amount was leaning on one side of the boat. Does anyone have the info ? Participation is pretty high too.

[ogm]

Was just digging through Archives...

Found this...

Week of Feb09/2004 .... 37% fully long.

http://www.traders-t...?showtopic=6327


Couldn't find any more such major extremes.. but then again I didn't have coffee yet

[q4wer]

2/10/04 and the following days, market was up for a few weeks, why are you short ?

[dcengr]

OGM, I agree with you that it doesn't seem right for a decline to start right here... perhaps after the shorts get squeezed a few days later. Could get volatile going into fed minutes tho.

[ogm]

OGM,

I agree with you that it doesn't seem right for a decline to start right here... perhaps after the shorts get squeezed a few days later.

Could get volatile going into fed minutes tho.

Put call flying again this morning too.

1.7 already.

Fear is raging once again.

[IndexTrader]

I gather you would recommend that the shorts cover now and take their profit? IT

[ogm]

I gather you would recommend that the shorts cover now and take their profit?

IT

I don't recommend anything to anyone. Do what you wish.

If you want to be heavily short in August market, before the Fed meeting in 2 weeks, with Sentiment near bearish extremes.... be my guest.

[IndexTrader]

I gather you would recommend that the shorts cover now and take their profit?

IT

I don't recommend anything to anyone. Do what you wish.

If you want to be heavily short in August market, before the Fed meeting in 2 weeks, with Sentiment near bearish extremes.... be my guest.

The point is these polls are very short term. "What is your position now?" "What will happen Tuesday?" According to Mark, the participants tend to right. No one is saying they will necessarily be short tomorrow, and no one is projecting what the market will do around the time the Fed meets. Personally, I don't read the polls...I find they cloud my judgment.

IT

[ogm]

I gather you would recommend that the shorts cover now and take their profit?

IT

I don't recommend anything to anyone. Do what you wish.

If you want to be heavily short in August market, before the Fed meeting in 2 weeks, with Sentiment near bearish extremes.... be my guest.

The point is these polls are very short term. "What is your position now?" "What will happen Tuesday?" According to Mark, the participants tend to right. No one is saying they will necessarily be short tomorrow, and no one is projecting what the market will do around the time the Fed meets. Personally, I don't read the polls...I find they cloud my judgment.

IT

Short term ? Maybe. But these polls have been ultra bearish for the past couple weeks. Persistant bearishness. No matter what market did. And tonite they were just absolutely extreme.

Also take a look at $CPC... pick any long term average... 10 days, 25 days, 150 days.. anything...

There are more indicators that say the same thing. Besides you can just feel pessimism everywhere. In people's post, in CNBC voices, everywhere...

Its not just pessimism.. Its deep depression.

Edited by ogm, 28 August 2007 - 09:27 AM.

[humble1]

one problem with sentiment is that when it is wrong, it is very wrong. the nasdaq all time high had many bears and schaeffer (sp?), the "expert" at the time, was VERY BULLISH because of it. and the recent mid-july highs in the spx had a MUCH LOWER bullish sentiment reading than earlier in the year. also, sentiment is very imprecise even when it is generally right. it is oversold and dangerous as a tool. imho !