5 replies to this topic

[Trend-Signals]

NASDAQ LT ANALYSIS:

Breakout from Jan 2004 to 50% retracement of Mar 2000 5132.52 - Oct 2002 is targeting Nasdaq 3000 +/- which is 50% RT of the correction.

The Jul 2007 top 2724 is 38% RT of the Mar 2000 – Oct 2002 1108.49 correction, and now Nasdaq is bounced off from the Mar 2007 2531.42 top breakout support.

The Jan 2005 break out from Jan 2004 top 2152.12 is failed, however, it again attempted the breakout 2219.91 in Aug 2005. However, it is again failed the second attempt; nevertheless, it formed higher/high price actions which subsequently traded to 2375.45 Apr 2006 top followed by Apr-Jul 2006 correction.

Price actions during Jan 2004 – Apr 2006 is a consolidation period of Feb 2003 – Jan 2004 price actions.

The Jan 2005 breakout attempt which was subsequently succeeded is targeting Nasdaq 3155 +/-. The Jan 2005 breakout attempt is technically consistent with “initial breakout attempt” is usually resolved in actual breakout.

Aug 2007 bottoming process with Mar 2007 low breakout support is consistent with the technical price pattern which a series of breakouts with higher/high price actions targeting 3155 +/- from Jan 2004 breakout.



http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$COMPQ&p=M&st=1995-01-01&en=2007-12-31&i=p37991314951&a=88255139&r=630.png

[Trend-Signals]

Markets traded above DTL which are initial breakout attempts. Technically, initial breakouts are usually resolved in actual breakouts.

http://www.stockchar...09398&r=568.png
http://www.stockchar...77535&r=859.png

http://www.stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=60&yr=0&mn=2&dy=17&i=p98670794592&a=79285156&r=938.png
http://www.stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=9&dy=0&i=p22232131775&a=76929034&r=724.png

[traderpaul]

You had a five years bull market....Three years bear market.....and a five years bull market....No bear market going forward?

[SemiBizz]

Here's the problem in targeting 3000 Nasdaq... it's VOLUME... The all time volume high for Nasdaq was from January 2001 a whopping 49.4B .... quite apropos, as that is when the Feds lowered rates by a full point. Unless the market is closed over the next few days that Volume Record will be broken for August 2007. With GREATER Volume... Nasdaq was unable to break the 1/2001 high of 2892(Stealth sign of weakness), that's the first signal. Furthermore the previous low from July will be broken on 10% plus more Volume, that's the 2nd signal(Overt sign of weakness)... These are two POWERFUL signals that should not be ignored...



http://bigcharts.mar...&mocktick=1.gif

[Jnavin]

Consider also the remarkable implications of a high volume August, which under ordinary circumstances ought to be the lowest volume month of the year.

Edited by Jnavin, 29 August 2007 - 11:18 AM.

[Trend-Signals]

The IT bottom which we are bottoming is a good case for the Nasdaq 3000 +/- target.

I have commented on the cycles since Jun-Jul 2004 bottom call stating that I am in global economy bullish cycle 4-8-16 up cycle with Oct 2002 as the low.

Sequential positive divergences ... breaking above the DTL will trigger buy/cover program...

http://stockcharts.c...92643&r=590.png