4 replies to this topic

[pdx5]

I am getting nervous holding my longs. Want to go flat and happy. The bernanke and Bush speeches did not encourage investors much and I can see why from these excerpts: Bernanke: In a warning to investors Bernanke said, "It is not the responsibility of the Federal Reserve - nor would it be appropriate - to protect lenders and investors from the consequences of their financial decisions." And he explained that even if the Fed were to lower interest rates it would not necessarily have the positive economic effect it has sometimes had in the past." President Bush: "Unfortunately, there have also been some excesses in the lending industry. This led some homeowners to take out loans larger than they could afford . . . . Some borrowers are now unable to make their monthly payments, or face foreclosure. . . . . The government has got a role to play - but it is limited. A federal bailout of lenders would only encourage a recurrence of the problem. It is also not the government's job to bail out speculators, or those who made the decision to buy a home they knew they could never afford." That all sounds quite negative. So what did Bernanke say that sounds positive?

[ogm]

Last 3 topics on this board.... "I am disappointed in the size of rally today" "Nothing impulsive about last couple of days" "SEPT is worst month" And you want to exit longs ? If Anything I want to buy more more more. Amazing disbelief. Classic wall of worry.

Edited by ogm, 31 August 2007 - 09:03 PM.

[kaiser soze]

I am bearish on the brokers but I am bullish on the market atleast for the next few weeks. Also I am very reluctant to hold positions overnight. I suspect my situation is not unique. I think the market is rewarding those who "keep the faith" and hold overnight positions by these huge opening gaps. And frustrating those who try to hitch a ride only when the market is open.

[ogm]

I am bearish on the brokers but I am bullish on the market atleast for the next few weeks. Also I am very reluctant to hold positions overnight. I suspect my situation is not unique.

I think the market is rewarding those who "keep the faith" and hold overnight positions by these huge opening gaps. And frustrating those who try to hitch a ride only when the market is open.

I wouldn't be surprized if we get another overnight gap on Monday.
Though then we'll probably consolidate a little.

As for the brokers.... I think they may be washed out. Especcialy if the market continues up from here.
My favorite are GS, MS, and MER.

I have GS, MS and BSC and bought some BCS today ( major ETF player with big dividend) Not exactly a broker. More like financial company.

Will buy MER on some dip soon.

BSC is a covered calls play for me. I'm long stock vs 110 Sept calls. Its trading near its book value Though that book value may take a hit this quarter, but this is a premier company that has buy out value.

Sentiment around brokers is horrendous at this point and we'll find within a week how bad their books are.
Take a look at this .... http://biz.yahoo.com...eview.html?.v=1

I suspect the surprizes at this point will be to the upside, since the sentiment is already so bad. So I'm taking some risk ahead of that.

Another thing.. LBO frenzy may be over, but... The cross country mergers are going strong, and I heard the trend there is improving. I'm suspecting with relatively weak dollar US companies are attractive targets for foreign companies. So there is support for their business. And of course if the market heats up again.. they'll benefit too.

Edited by ogm, 31 August 2007 - 10:41 PM.

[skyymaster]

OG, I guarantee you 100% that we are not going to get a GAP------------Monday