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[Trend-Signals]

Already stressed out by the "Sept Terror" as I see a flood of "doom and gloom" hitting media, but I see "Aug 2004" sentiment de ja vu.



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Market Breadth - since Sept is seasonally weak month even though we had up-months during the recent years, we now see, "doom and gloom" posts all over financial boards and media.

During Aug 2004 bottom, I can remember that financial media was printing "crash" as the same as we have seen during early Aug. That was the time when we had "Financial Terrorists" warning on the news similar as we have seen, "Financial Terror" is worse than "Terrorists" fear. So, it seems that the terror scenario is quite similar to that of Aug 2004.

Having said that Being cautious is in order.

Based on the breadth and price action analysis, I still think that we have good chance that market will trade up. If market indeed makes new lows than the Aug low, I would think that we are indeed going into bear market.

SPXA200 internal confirms SPX price action that it is showing a break above the resistance.

http://www.stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPXA200&p=D&st=2007-01-01&i=p17364849245&a=96227204&r=304.png

SPXA50 is also showing a reversal from major low.
http://www.stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPXA50&p=W&yr=4&mn=0&dy=0&i=p74476456807&a=68421789&r=45.png

$NAMO weekly has traded to upside showing strong momentum after hitting all time low.
This strong bounce bodes well for price advancement as we can see during Jun-Jul 2006 low that the intial strong bounce is followed by price advancements.

http://www.stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$NAMO&p=W&yr=5&mn=5&dy=0&i=p31247762430&a=84024263&r=425.png

$NYSI monthly shows that it is bounced off from the low as $NYA shows a reversal from the breakout support shown with highlight.

http://www.stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$NYSI&p=M&yr=9&mn=0&dy=0&i=p77564893476&a=60493436&r=716.png

NYHL is also showing major bottom coming off from the low.

The RHCOMPQ and RHNYA also show major lows in Aug.

http://www.stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$RHCOMPQ&p=D&yr=5&mn=6&dy=0&i=p58057354694&a=93028524&r=888.png
http://www.stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$RHNYA&p=D&yr=10&mn=11&dy=0&i=p69974490394&a=93029316&r=751.png