8 replies to this topic

[Rich]

I expect to see a market decline start this week. We are moving to cash. Rich

[Douglas]

Just curious. What caused the shift? Sentiment, loss of momentum, cycles, some oscillator you use, or just a WAG?

[Rich]

Just curious. What caused the shift? Sentiment, loss of momentum, cycles, some oscillator you use, or just a WAG?

I never really understand why the model changes direction. It is sensitive to many inputs including interest rates, exchange rates, and many technical indicators. The model combines the inputs in a complex fashion and outputs where it thinks the market is headed. I just report the results.

Rich

[selecto]

If you believe in things that you don't understand...

Edited by selecto, 03 September 2007 - 11:48 AM.

[Citation]

How has your model done (accuracy rate) over the past few years? Thanks

[Rich]

How has your model done (accuracy rate) over the past few years?

Thanks

The model is able to fit the last 20+ years of daily data with an accuracy of 82 percent. Blind testing of the last 200 trading days gives an accuracy of 81 percent.

Rich

[OEXCHAOS]

FWIW, the Wall Street Sentiment Survey had a dead even split. Long term readers know what that means. Mark

[linrom1]

FWIW, the Wall Street Sentiment Survey had a dead even split.

Long term readers know what that means.

Mark

I am not a long time reader, so I would have to make an educated guess!

Since markets have an inherent upward bias; but, the traders here(better than average) are uncommitted, the markets' direction has to be down.

Ok, Mark, how did I do on this logic test?

[OEXCHAOS]

FWIW, the Wall Street Sentiment Survey had a dead even split.

Long term readers know what that means.

Mark

I am not a long time reader, so I would have to make an educated guess!

Since markets have an inherent upward bias; but, the traders here(better than average) are uncommitted, the markets' direction has to be down.

Ok, Mark, how did I do on this logic test?

I don't know about the logic, but the final read could be a bit more refined1

The folks here are better than most, but like any group of traders, if too many get leaning too far for too long...well, it's best not to bet with them. When this crew is uncommitted or neutral, look for some selling. My read is that the sentiment here is neutral-to-bullish after coming off an unambiguous Buy.

Now, for the first question. The WSS Surveyees, when evenly split, tell us to look for a turn, often around mid week. So, theoretically, we should look for a ST top tomorrow or Thursday. I'm watching for sentiment support.

Mark