6 replies to this topic

[kaiser soze]

Significantly lightening their VIX longs after correctly accumulating a huge long position.



..and significantly long the SP, ND and ES futures.







I'm thinking a scorch is coming sometime next week.

[atlasshrugged]

do you have a chart for the nq's??? the naz minis? want to make sure they are not offsetting the huge bullish stance with the big ones!! otherwise it looks very compelling

[kaiser soze]

do you have a chart for the nq's??? the naz minis?

want to make sure they are not offsetting the huge bullish stance with the big ones!!

otherwise it looks very compelling

No, they are not, IC. Here's the chart.

[atlasshrugged]

do you have a chart for the nq's??? the naz minis?

want to make sure they are not offsetting the huge bullish stance with the big ones!!

otherwise it looks very compelling

No, they are not, IC. Here's the chart.

thanks KS...where can a "usual suspect" like myself find these charts?

thanks

[kaiser soze]

lol-they're available for free at softwarenorth.com.

[NAV]

Kaiser Soze, The commercials were net short from Nov 06 to May 07 when the market was in a strong uptrend. They were wrong then. They started getting net long and have remianed so since Jun 07, when the market got slaughtered. They were wrong again. Now tell me how is COT report useful at all ? What is your intrepretation of the SP COT chart ?

[kaiser soze]

Totally agree with you on that point NAV. BUT : 1) VIX futures and calls have become increasingly popular. It is noteworthy that the commercials took a CORRECT position opposite both the small and large specs and in a big way starting mid-july right at the top of the market. It is hence also noteworthy that they are now lightening up on those same positions. 2) Commercial activity in the futures is most useful at inflection points. Commercials take long positions when fear is dominant and nobody wants to be long the market. Which maybe why they are simultaneously long SP, ES and ND, DJ & NQ neutral-nobody to take the other side ?. Similarly when optimism is rampant, seeing the commercials take a short position is a warning flag (eg 2000). The interpretation is subjective and 1 or 2 in isolation would merely be another statistic. It is 1 & 2 in concert that has got my attention atleast.

Edited by kaiser soze, 03 September 2007 - 04:40 AM.