17 replies to this topic

[ogm]

Look what some bears on Prudentbear.com have to say....

http://boards.pruden...;snsa=A#M553438

That you, Mr. Moto, for that far-ranging synopsis.

My own myopic view comes from yesterday's walk around the local mall. In fact, I wasn't going to post my thoughts because I was so demoralized, but I am impelled by your review to do so.

Needless to say, no one has told the sheeple that we are (or are heading into) this "Great Depression II", or that there is a housing bust, or that the U.S. is in dire straights due to our deficits, or that the sub-prime/Alt-A/debt implosion is dragging the entire housing, real estate, mortgage and banking system into the abyss!!!

Far from it.

The sheeps were out en mass, swarming around the Apple Store; literally lined up out the door for Cheesecake Factory, mobbing the Macy's and generally shopping 'til they dropped.
The parking lot was so crowded that mall security had to have guards waving the people in and out.

The food court was overwhelmed with overweight, under-exercised sheeps, all clamoring for their two-thousand calorie junk food meals, and of course Starbucks had a stream of people snaking for a hundred feet out the door, all just dying to slurp down their 600-calorie latte's.

And by the way, lest one get the impression that the lambs were just at the mall to scarf down a meal, please allow me to share that the majority of them had bags from all the major stores there--stuffed with clothes, shoes, games and DVDs.

So, once again the doom-and-gloomers (myself especially) are proven wrong. The Consumer Economy rolls on unabated.

Edited by ogm, 03 September 2007 - 09:56 AM.

[MaryAM]

What state do you live in? Sam's Club in Ct on a Saturday was nearly empty. I only shop there about once a month, but usually have to drive around the parking lot two or three times to find a place to park. Then once I shop, it takes a half hour to check out. Not this last Saturday - on a holiday weekend. Notice the same thing at the shopping mall - lots of parking available though I didn't go in. Property taxes here in Ct are totally out of controll adding to the INFLATION costs yet wages are in DEFLATION. By the way whose bright idea was it that just because you own real estate that you are obligated to fund other peoples breeding habits? i.e. the schools. There is no more equity to borrow from on housing - so that money has dried up. I think the consumer is just about finished.
Mary Anne

Look what some bears on Prudentbear.com have to say....

http://boards.pruden...;snsa=A#M553438

That you, Mr. Moto, for that far-ranging synopsis.

My own myopic view comes from yesterday's walk around the local mall. In fact, I wasn't going to post my thoughts because I was so demoralized, but I am impelled by your review to do so.

Needless to say, no one has told the sheeple that we are (or are heading into) this "Great Depression II", or that there is a housing bust, or that the U.S. is in dire straights due to our deficits, or that the sub-prime/Alt-A/debt implosion is dragging the entire housing, real estate, mortgage and banking system into the abyss!!!

Far from it.

The sheeps were out en mass, swarming around the Apple Store; literally lined up out the door for Cheesecake Factory, mobbing the Macy's and generally shopping 'til they dropped.
The parking lot was so crowded that mall security had to have guards waving the people in and out.

The food court was overwhelmed with overweight, under-exercised sheeps, all clamoring for their two-thousand calorie junk food meals, and of course Starbucks had a stream of people snaking for a hundred feet out the door, all just dying to slurp down their 600-calorie latte's.

And by the way, lest one get the impression that the lambs were just at the mall to scarf down a meal, please allow me to share that the majority of them had bags from all the major stores there--stuffed with clothes, shoes, games and DVDs.

So, once again the doom-and-gloomers (myself especially) are proven wrong. The Consumer Economy rolls on unabated.

[ed rader]

Look what some bears on Prudentbear.com have to say....

http://boards.pruden...;snsa=A#M553438

That you, Mr. Moto, for that far-ranging synopsis.

My own myopic view comes from yesterday's walk around the local mall. In fact, I wasn't going to post my thoughts because I was so demoralized, but I am impelled by your review to do so.

Needless to say, no one has told the sheeple that we are (or are heading into) this "Great Depression II", or that there is a housing bust, or that the U.S. is in dire straights due to our deficits, or that the sub-prime/Alt-A/debt implosion is dragging the entire housing, real estate, mortgage and banking system into the abyss!!!

Far from it.

The sheeps were out en mass, swarming around the Apple Store; literally lined up out the door for Cheesecake Factory, mobbing the Macy's and generally shopping 'til they dropped.
The parking lot was so crowded that mall security had to have guards waving the people in and out.

The food court was overwhelmed with overweight, under-exercised sheeps, all clamoring for their two-thousand calorie junk food meals, and of course Starbucks had a stream of people snaking for a hundred feet out the door, all just dying to slurp down their 600-calorie latte's.

And by the way, lest one get the impression that the lambs were just at the mall to scarf down a meal, please allow me to share that the majority of them had bags from all the major stores there--stuffed with clothes, shoes, games and DVDs.

So, once again the doom-and-gloomers (myself especially) are proven wrong. The Consumer Economy rolls on unabated.

malls are the opiate of the masses. i don't think you can equate traffic with sales. i'm an electrical contractor and i know business is slow for the trades in silicon valley unless you are working on one of the many condo projects that are under construction.

and this time of year is typically the busiest for the building trades.

my buddy has had a roofing business for 30 years and he says business is 30% off because of the re-roofing end of the business -- i.e., new roofs are doing okay but replacement roofs are atypically slow.


ed rader

Edited by ed rader, 03 September 2007 - 10:32 AM.

[JAP]

Look what some bears on Prudentbear.com have to say....

http://boards.pruden...;snsa=A#M553438

That you, Mr. Moto, for that far-ranging synopsis.

My own myopic view comes from yesterday's walk around the local mall. In fact, I wasn't going to post my thoughts because I was so demoralized, but I am impelled by your review to do so.

Needless to say, no one has told the sheeple that we are (or are heading into) this "Great Depression II", or that there is a housing bust, or that the U.S. is in dire straights due to our deficits, or that the sub-prime/Alt-A/debt implosion is dragging the entire housing, real estate, mortgage and banking system into the abyss!!!

Far from it.

The sheeps were out en mass, swarming around the Apple Store; literally lined up out the door for Cheesecake Factory, mobbing the Macy's and generally shopping 'til they dropped.
The parking lot was so crowded that mall security had to have guards waving the people in and out.

The food court was overwhelmed with overweight, under-exercised sheeps, all clamoring for their two-thousand calorie junk food meals, and of course Starbucks had a stream of people snaking for a hundred feet out the door, all just dying to slurp down their 600-calorie latte's.

And by the way, lest one get the impression that the lambs were just at the mall to scarf down a meal, please allow me to share that the majority of them had bags from all the major stores there--stuffed with clothes, shoes, games and DVDs.

So, once again the doom-and-gloomers (myself especially) are proven wrong. The Consumer Economy rolls on unabated.

Well written, entertaining read... but I'm still a

[AChartist]

We're curtailing production in the transportation industry. Activity in the #5 growing county seems very slow to me. Last year one store manager here said they slow first in the upclass district because of an informed level of consumer where the blue collars areas slow last. The high end stores here send everything that doesnt sell to the lower economic stores where they will be discounted there. I found this out when I went to buy something and it was gone, I asked where everything went, they told me they send it all to the other store. This is my observation, I posted before. The blue collar people are like 90% of us and the dollar volume. That's why they're kept clueless. They also spend everything they get wastefully, because they have nothing and want anything. They thrash around in a consumption tizzy all weekend to feel like they got something. I tried to explain it to guy who worked for me, he was poor and always talked about toys he needed. I explained that I get an annual bonus and having a lump sum like that encourages me to keep it, whereas a little in dribs and drabs causes one to spend wastefully. I told him if he had 20k in his pocket, he would not want the junk anymore. For example I dont have a flatscreeen.

[selecto]

Some opine that most all this wonderful consumer spending has been with borrowed money. Now that everybody is all in and property values are declining, that mine is closed, Even for "good citizens" mortgage re-sets are going to decrease disposable income. Credit card lines are about all that is left. Write offs have increased. Its possible we don't slow down, we just hit the wall. On the other hand, every teotwawki call heretofore has been wrong.

Edited by selecto, 03 September 2007 - 11:24 AM.

[ogm]

Well written, entertaining read... but I'm still a

Of course. As I said, its only starting.


Hmm.. just browsing through some charts looking at momentum stocks. NILE, ZUMZ .... very hot... surprizingly they are in OMG RETAIL !!! sector

AMZN not doing that bad either, not to mention another consumer product company, AAPL.

Edited by ogm, 03 September 2007 - 11:28 AM.

[Data]

There's always a hot store/stock in retailing at any time. ZUMZ happens to be based in an area of the country that's still doing well. Meanwhile, most of the retailing stocks are down considerably. The IBD retail sector is down 15 percent and the apparel sector is down 20-25 percent.

[ogm]

There's always a hot store/stock in retailing at any time. ZUMZ happens to be based in
an area of the country that's still doing well. Meanwhile, most of the retailing stocks are
down considerably. The IBD retail sector is down 15 percent and the apparel sector is
down 20-25 percent.

Sounds like we had a good correction already, doesn't it ?
I picked up JOSB last week in the 28s. Looked very compeling at that price.


Market is a discounting mechanism. All that credit crisis stuff has been out there for a long time. And there are 100s of bearish websites with 1000s of authors writing regular bearish crap over and over. We've all seen all these charts and numbers. You'd think market has discounted all that crap by now.

But there is something there that is unknown, something that is supporting the system. Something that none of these 1000s of bears is counting on.

The point is .. expectations are worse then reality. So the surprizes will be on the upside. Thats all it is.

Edited by ogm, 03 September 2007 - 12:18 PM.

[espresso]

RSI, CCI, they went too much down you don't go to da moon without lower prices with positive divergence on these indicators, "that's all it is"! Take profits if you can...