17 replies to this topic

[pdx5]

OGM -- is your real name Kudlow by any chance? But anyways, I admire your relentless stance. Good luck with your trades. I have a few anecdotes to add: In 20+ years of credit card usage, none of my credit cards ever questioned my purchases. Couple of weeks ago I bought a cheap computer from Wal-Mart on-line and my credit card company actually dispproved the purchase! Wal-Mart simply sent me an e-mail saying order was cancelled. So I called the credit card outfit and they said "the transaction was rejected because Wal-Mart listed the product as Video rental". WOW! are the credit card companies becoming extra diligent in doling out credit or what?? I had to actually call the credit card company to make the transaction go through!! As for the local malls, on week days the crowds are noticeably sparse. Restaurants are barely half filled which used to be jam packed. And every house for sale is staying on the market much much longer than a year ago, many have "price reduced" signs. A new neighbor just bought the house behind us and said they bought it for 10% under asking price.

Edited by pdx5, 03 September 2007 - 02:26 PM.

[qqqqtrdr]

We were oversold medium term. Now we are slowly moving to overbought, and we are not there yet. Bearish or Bullish medium term, you might as well ride the wave higher. If you are in housing construction arena, sales will be down, due to the big boom of the last 10+ years. People in construction know it turns bad for a little while, and saves up money for the lean years. High tech on the other hand is slowly coming out of a large down turn. Globally high tech is poised to do well. Barry

[HoseB]

There's always a hot store/stock in retailing at any time. ZUMZ happens to be based in
an area of the country that's still doing well. Meanwhile, most of the retailing stocks are
down considerably. The IBD retail sector is down 15 percent and the apparel sector is
down 20-25 percent.

"... But there is something there that is unknown, something that is supporting the system. Something that none of these 1000s of bears is counting on....

Something? How about the real inflation rate is 6-8%, maybe even 10%. Fed's pumping money supply like there's no tomorrow and lying about the inflation rate. Da Boyz are playing that.

[n83]

But anyways, I admire your relentless stance.

it is more the amount of time devoted to making the bull case and trying to convince everyone else-gg

[ogm]

But anyways, I admire your relentless stance.

it is more the amount of time devoted to making the bull case and trying to convince everyone else-gg

I'm not trying to convince anyone. I just like posting stuff. Helps me organize my own thoughts.

Plus I just like arguing for the sake of argument I can argue the bear case just as easily. But I don't really believe in it in light of the sentiment. Bear side is overcrowded.

Was just reading through prudentbear.com forums. What a bunch of crap. Very active forum is overrun by posters with appropriate nicks...

megabear, SupercycleBear, aussiebear, floridabear,WalterBearkite, Yoggibear, bobbybear, booboobear, mauibear, bearking, qqqbear, cambodiabear, detachedbear, peteybear, definitionofbear, ... youname it bear


Basicaly the consensus is if this isn't the crash of 1929/1987 then its going to be a double top, and then a crash.....

Very active forum.

Edited by ogm, 03 September 2007 - 09:04 PM.

[dcengr]

Just make sure the # of posts and your position size aren't correlated. Sometimes, I wonder if people who've bet rather big need constant security blankets to convince themselves due to the pressure they're under. Also, don't be afraid to flip the other way if you think you're totally wrong, or just sit out. Cash is a position. As far as all the bull arguments go, its been very bearish for a few weeks now.. sometimes during a financial crisis, having a lot of bearishness doesn't necessarily mean it'll go up. Just like sometimes if there's a lot of bullishness it doesn't mean it will reverse and head lower.

[tommyt]

my labor day BBQ story: a friend of mine is a pilot and taxi's around small planes that rich people buy. He just got laid off. He tells me this has rarely happened over the years , and is a sign of a weak economy.

[Tor]

Well written, entertaining read... but I'm still a

Of course. As I said, its only starting.


Hmm.. just browsing through some charts looking at momentum stocks. NILE, ZUMZ .... very hot... surprizingly they are in OMG RETAIL !!! sector

AMZN not doing that bad either, not to mention another consumer product company, AAPL.

I watch the retail stocks in countries like the UK. same observation. Price action says up and recession worries overdone. Will see I guess. My guess is recession worries overblown.