2 replies to this topic

[Trend-Signals]

Qs reached intraday target to 50 as noted below. Qs outperformed SPX and DOW retracing almost near to the 50.66 which is providing more confidence; however, SPX 1405 +/- is a strong resistance as shown on the daily chart. When SPX trades above 1405 +/-, we can be more confident that market will retrace to SPX 1455 and to breakout. As noted earlier, intraday is overbought. Healthy consolidation period will provide more confident on the recent rally.

Having said that, considering the seasonality, it is better to be cautious. While the market formations show inverse H&S formation, it is better to be prepared for market volatility. Now, I think that it is prudent to be prepared almost near to the 8/16 lows. I would like to see that “8/28 low – high lighted with blue” to hold.

In conclusion: During Sept, it is better to be cautious and will reassess market strength after consolidation.


http://investorshub....age_id=22585480
Posted by: __1Best__
In reply to: GLENO34 who wrote msg# 24381
Date:9/4/2007 3:36:53 PM
…………………………
Now, I have to reassess market to see how far market wants to go up.

So far, Qs reached vst target of 50.


http://www.stockchar...09398&r=157.png
http://www.stockchar...77535&r=760.png
http://www.stockchar...31079&r=924.png
http://www.stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=60&yr=0&mn=2&dy=17&i=p98670794592&a=79285156&r=270.png
http://www.stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=9&dy=0&i=p81023012923&a=76929034&r=769.png
http://www.stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=W&yr=4&mn=8&dy=0&i=p55194635798&a=78987374&r=406.png

http://www.stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$COMPQ&p=60&yr=0&mn=2&dy=17&i=p56734971977&a=95692191&r=957.png
http://www.stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$COMPQ&p=D&yr=0&mn=8&dy=0&i=p80974725427&a=76909044&r=483.png
http://www.stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$COMPQ&p=W&yr=4&mn=6&dy=0&i=p84820925254&a=77295648&r=657.png




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DOW, during Sept, it is better to be cautious. After I study charts and market sentiment, it is better to be flexible during Sept and reassess.

While Equity call numbers were favorable during the last 4-5 trading days, DOW put number is consistently too high. This is usually signaling a sell-off with in a few days.

I am anticipating normal Sept volatility to be prudent. While the price formation is showing inverse H&S, to be prudent, price actions can swing in volatility, therefore, while I am anticipating the blue highlighted supports will be held, it is wise to be cautious during Sept.

DOW closed at 13448.86 above 50ma 13442.93 however, closed near at the intraday triple top as shown on 60m. With the high put interest, we could see a pull back which will heighten Sept fear. Therefore, remaining in cautious stance with an anticipation of a pull back. Will reassess after a consolidation period.

http://www.stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$INDU&p=60&yr=0&mn=2&dy=17&i=p98670794592&a=115940541&r=286.png
http://www.stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$INDU&p=D&yr=0&mn=10&dy=0&i=p63357307913&a=76966992&r=390.png

Half Hourly Exchange Volume Report For 9/4/2007

Please note: As of 01/26/2005, all reported volume on Options on the Nasdaq 100 Index Tracking Stock (QQQ), including LEAPS, will be reflected within the "Index" 1/2 Hourly Volume column immediately below rather than within the "Equity" 1/2 Hourly Volume column immediately below.

Equity Index Total Put / Call
Time Calls Puts Total Calls Puts Total Calls Puts Total Ratio
9:00 AM 136032 86068 222100 42549 49734 92283 178581 135802 314383 0.76
9:30 AM 233090 142930 376020 82819 183617 266436 315909 326547 642456 1.03
10:00 AM 271130 172455 443585 149089 234065 383154 420219 406520 826739 0.97
10:30 AM 430618 266285 696903 203505 331279 534784 634123 597564 1231687 0.94
11:00 AM 500747 297771 798518 261753 372336 634089 762500 670107 1432607 0.88
11:30 AM 552821 326347 879168 303786 459769 763555 856607 786116 1642723 0.92
12:00 PM 606352 358179 964531 324244 494394 818638 930596 852573 1783169 0.92
12:30 PM 665209 381585 1046794 346396 531879 878275 1011605 913464 1925069 0.90
1:00 PM 728842 438458 1167300 370019 605486 975505 1098861 1043944 2142805 0.95
1:30 PM 797732 493061 1290793 398200 716361 1114561 1195932 1209422 2405354 1.01
2:00 PM 869720 526081 1395801 452144 782980 1235124 1321864 1309061 2630925 0.99
2:30 PM 996667 568810 1565477 503744 898060 1401804 1500411 1466870 2967281 0.98
3:00 PM 1096465 667682 1764147 555655 1013075 1568730 1652120 1680757 3332877 1.02

Final Volume and Open Interest information can be found here.
* Fields with N/A indicate that the data is not available.


Half Hourly Volume Report for Selected Indices For 9/4/2007
DOW Industrials S&P 100 S&P 500
Time Calls Puts Total Calls Puts Total Calls Puts Total
9:00 AM 399 3590 3989 666 1734 2400 4029 9464 13493
9:30 AM 1063 3868 4931 1184 5737 6921 13737 78939 92676
10:00 AM 1099 4441 5540 1780 7363 9143 47510 114681 162191
10:30 AM 1119 4804 5923 2673 8154 10827 62952 139093 202045
11:00 AM 1170 5541 6711 3584 11534 15118 84339 181232 265571
11:30 AM 1180 5555 6735 3972 12825 16797 90360 197844 288204
12:00 PM 1181 5777 6958 4532 13530 18062 97067 216528 313595
12:30 PM 1192 6058 7250 5728 15424 21152 107064 228426 335490
1:00 PM 1198 6224 7422 6119 16420 22539 112484 239969 352453
1:30 PM 1224 14364 15588 6692 18392 25084 116595 270228 386823
2:00 PM 1280 14781 16061 9368 19490 28858 128751 281165 409916
2:30 PM 1436 15315 16751 12075 22241 34316 153833 352073 505906
3:00 PM 1560 15678 17238 13308 26185 39493 165921 382947 548868

[Trend-Signals]

Correction: SPX 1505 +/- and SPX 1555

Qs reached intraday target to 50 as noted below. Qs outperformed SPX and DOW retracing almost near to the 50.66 which is providing more confidence; however, SPX 1505 +/- is a strong resistance as shown on the daily chart. When SPX trades above 1505 +/-, we can be more confident that market will retrace to SPX 1555 and to breakout. As noted earlier, intraday is overbought. Healthy consolidation period will provide more confident on the recent rally.

Having said that, considering the seasonality, it is better to be cautious. While the market formations show inverse H&S formation, it is better to be prepared for market volatility. Now, I think that it is prudent to be prepared almost near to the 8/16 lows. I would like to see that “8/28 low – high lighted with blue” to hold.

In conclusion: During Sept, it is better to be cautious and will reassess market strength after consolidation.


http://investorshub....age_id=22585480
Posted by: __1Best__
In reply to: GLENO34 who wrote msg# 24381
Date:9/4/2007 3:36:53 PM
…………………………
Now, I have to reassess market to see how far market wants to go up.

So far, Qs reached vst target of 50.

[Trend-Signals]

The Bulls best case scenario would be "Wave 3" of 5 which will trade above intraday Trendline shown on 60m. A strong consolidation above the intraday uptrend will be signaling "Wave 3" of 5. This will lead to breaking above SPX 1505 +/-. then retrace to SPX 1555.