3 replies to this topic

[maineman]

The rise off the blow off lows has been an easy ride for us bulls, as NYSI and MACD (and others) were moving up as the panic price was moving lower. It was a shopper's paradise. The move up has been choppy and profitiable. During the last few trading days the market got stuck printing nominal new intraday up spurts, with declining confirmation from the usual gang of indicators, with momentum reaching an extreme yet unable to propel price into orbit. This is always suspect. In fact, yesterday's close was nasty, with a sharp and rapid deflation in the premium and a sharp and persistent rise in DOW index puts purchased all afternoon. What "should" happen now is quite simple. The bigger picture is "up", so the decline "should" either check at the 55 day exponential MA, calm down and shows signs of stabilizing or fizzle back again towards the 200 DMA and once again raise all the fear and bear breast beating. One likely (and highly possible) outcome would be yet another scary dip below the 200 dma, but well above the crash lows, in the 1420 range, which should be bought with abandon, should we reach that point. Strategy is to continue to maintain an intermediate bullish position and re-accumulate short to intermediate long positions on the panic that is just ahead. I trade OEX puts and Calls and ES for the purpose of disclosure and if you want to check the 55 day EMA and 200 DMA. goog luck. Stay calm. mm

[ogm]

NDX ran more then 10% from the lows. Of course its going to consolidate a little. I thought we'd have 1 more up day, but maybe not. MCO's got pretty overbought, but the internals momentum is still strongly up. Sentiment is far from bearish. People are still catching the top. Though I have to admit majority were absolutely stunned yesterday, so we might've had enough short covering to start consolidation. Lets see if people will agressivley try to short this. And what internals will look like on this pullback. Overall Stocks present a tonn of value here, and frankly there is no where else for the money to go. Also notice the ABX indexes anf High yield stuff had a decent day yesterday, and overall have been very stable last couple weeks with a slight upside bias. So things are calming down significantly.

Edited by ogm, 05 September 2007 - 08:25 AM.

[maineman]

TIme to see if the EMA 55 is now resistance or will support a return to the bull case. If we repel the 55 from below then a retest of the 200 dma is more likely, but still not a slam dunk. mm

[relax]

hi maineman looks like the S&P 500 neckline held today at 1.468 if they take it lower we are going for 1.430 at least however, failure of an inverted shs can be bad, so maybe we restest lows by sep 10-12, where an 8 day cycle low is due, also sep 12 is the 4½ years since the march 12 2003 bottom still remain bullish but things could change quickly, just trying to keep an open mind Good trading maine