10 replies to this topic

[OEXCHAOS]

I just received this "market update":

"Dow industrials fall nearly 100 points in opening trades Wednesday " from MarketWatch.

Whenever I get these breathless updates, my radar goes off. This would be an outright Buy had the decline been a bit more trivial. As it is, it bolsters the case for a bounce today. I'm watching for my spot.

Bear in mind, I'm thinking about shorting whatever rally shows, for a quick day or swing trade, too.


Big picture, I'm Bullish.

[NAV]

I was planning to short this market today. But with this huge gap-down and go, my risk management parameters says stay flat. Call me a deer caught in headlights for now.

[SemiBizz]

Yeah, that's the thing about a bearish upthrust.. they are designed to push prices to ridiculous levels on light volume and leave folks flat-footed.... yesterday was a classic volume dump at the close and the gap down follow through on volume sets the stage for a huge decline.

[Specul8]

I was planning to short this market today. But with this huge gap-down and go, my risk management parameters says stay flat. Call me a deer caught in headlights for now.

Short YM @13,375

[SemiBizz]

BTW, these fools will continue buying the dip for awhile... they will very likely buy into the Beige Book Mystery and sell the history... plenty of time to get short... don't rush.

[nicolasillo]

-12% that says it all. Do you know what I am talking about?
if not read below.

http://www.bloomberg...6...&refer=home

[eminimee]

no count..just a picture with support lines.

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$OEX&p=60&yr=0&mn=3&dy=10&i=p00960300623&a=79663062&r=914.png

[Cirrus]

I still think you can watch GS, JPM and C daily and intraday charts and get a great tell. The charts are getting close to a sold out look on an IT time frame. As far as today is concerned I think we can wait until 1100-1200 and check the breadth. If it's down here at 5-1 negative or say 3-1 negative or lower I think the odds of a big rally are very low. I've posted on this before WRT both market directions. It would take 'heavy sponsorship' to turn something like that around. I don't think the first third to half of the session is played out yet, though. For this indicator I usuall wait until noon ET or so. Heavily decisive breadth at that time frame typically means a very directional market for the day.

[ogm]

I still think you can watch GS, JPM and C daily and intraday charts and get a great tell. The charts are getting close to a sold out look on an IT time frame.

As far as today is concerned I think we can wait until 1100-1200 and check the breadth. If it's down here at 5-1 negative or say 3-1 negative or lower I think the odds of a big rally are very low. I've posted on this before WRT both market directions. It would take 'heavy sponsorship' to turn something like that around. I don't think the first third to half of the session is played out yet, though.

For this indicator I usuall wait until noon ET or so. Heavily decisive breadth at that time frame typically means a very directional market for the day.

Doubt we'll get a big rally today. We'll probably meander around for a couple days.

Digest the big move.

Let the bears regain some confidence and pile on shorts for "the big decline".

Then the grind upwards can resume into the Fed rate cut.

[SemiBizz]

-12% that says it all. Do you know what I am talking about?
if not read below.

http://www.bloomberg...6...&refer=home

Yeah, but that was in July, before Countrywide croaked... surely business will have improved in August?



My work says a drop in prices will eventually spark volume. Now... when? since R.E. is a long cycle sale, seasonal factors, overall uncertainty as prices plummet about overpaying... I'd say we'll see that uptick in volume starting in the very early spring (March)