5 replies to this topic

[Rogerdodger]

TSP 09/10/07 -09/14/07
Bullish 45%
Bearish 37%
Votes 395
BUY

LOWRISK 9/2/07
Bullish 35%
Bearish 48%

AAII 8/31/07
47% Bullish

9/4/07:


9/6/07:

[ogm]

Interesting how the TSP sentiment went from sell to buy with the market actually higher.

[eminimee]

http://www.investorh...es2/Kirk325.pdf



that is courtesy of Kirk Lindstrom and sincerely hope I haven't broken any copyright rules. Note the 10 week ma on there and compare where we were coming out of a triangle price low in late 94 to where we are now.....then have a look at this oex:spx chart....we may or may not have some more bottoming action required going into later this fall....but I suspect when we do finally start breaking out.....people won't believe what's going on and you'll see a rising vix with rising prices.



http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=M&st=1987-01-01&i=p89395564987&a=68755843&r=3423.png

[OEXCHAOS]

Hey, Roger! You want a job? BTW, I find those readings from TSP talk less than compellingly Bullish. My feeling is that their model is Bull trend biased. They turn too Bullish on too little Bearishness in a down trend. Right now, the trend is iffy by my measures. Mark

[ogm]

BTW, I find those readings from TSP talk less than compellingly Bullish. My feeling is that their model is Bull trend biased. They turn too Bullish on too little Bearishness in a down trend. Right now, the trend is iffy by my measures.

Mark

True, but what I have commented on is the general direction of how the index moved relative to the market. There was significant decline in bullishness on the upward market move. A lot of mistrust.

Of course you're the expert on sentiment, and you see a bigger sentiment picture, but my understanding is
in bearish trend the bullishness rises faster on smaller price advances, and in bullish trend bearishness builds faster on smaller declines. In other words, its all relative.

And here we have bearishness build on an upward move.

Of course TSP is just one little piece of the puzzle.

[eminimee]

IF/WHEN this breaks out....I also think that the VIX will rise with price...noone is going to believe this next leg up imvho. Short term I think we probably have some good swings...but still should be considered backing and filling

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$NDX:$SPX&p=W&yr=10&mn=8&dy=0&i=p16718866931&a=114984972&r=6822.png

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$VIX&p=M&st=1992-08-01&i=p92504726596&a=78821384&r=9521.png