14 replies to this topic

[hiker]

XLF with different moving avgs.



NYA



MS World

Edited by hiker, 08 September 2007 - 12:34 PM.

[ogm]

Is there any service that posts quarterly charts ? I used to have Quote.com long time ago, but don't have suprscription to them anymore. Interesting how it all looks on quarterly bars.

[hiker]

SPY daily



repeat of what I posted in a thread below, FWIW

for this time period leading up to Sept 18 Fed....two price levels to highlight for SPY.

145.33 is a recent daily low from last few weeks that was tested and held on Friday..and it looks impt. when plotted on the weekly

143.80 needs to hold

so...any long trades in the vicinity of 145.33 or below can consider minimum risk to 143.80...1.05% risk

for potential reward of 2.06%:

148.33 is the near-term max. upside R, with a simple breakout no. above the approx. 150 to 150.55 zone

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many of this week's buyers were trapped by Friday's gap down and they may represent weak hands at this point

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I cannot ignore that this week's SPX high satisfied the .618 retrace of the 1555 to 1370 move....what is to be expected as a retrace before possibly heading back down

and that VIX is headed back up

bulls cannot be complacent, until SPX starts closing above 1476 on some consistent basis

bottom picking is not the way to go in my opinion

expect a bounce at some point again, that may be short lived

watching the 10 week sma as potential R..if it continues to decline, bulls are going to have a tough time with conviction

Dave provides some trendlines here that readily show some things important to consider -

http://forums.techni...post?id=2140605

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XLF weekly...what about this shows improvement?

Edited by hiker, 08 September 2007 - 12:55 PM.

[hare_bear]

Is there any service that posts quarterly charts ?

I used to have Quote.com long time ago, but don't have suprscription to them anymore. Interesting how it all looks on quarterly bars.

OGM,

www.BigCharts.com provides quarterlies.

[ogm]

I think in the current environment, you either have to do VST trades, or pick your side and wait for breakout one way or another. We are in a volatile narrow range, squeezed between moving averages on longer term charts (look at the weekly charts you posted). Trying to guess this market on day to day basis isn't easy. It can easily surprize.

[hiker]

hi OGM, makes sense. I wonder if the majority is expecting 1525 or above before 1320? or is it only the minority that sees the possibility of SPX 1320 area before December ends?

Edited by hiker, 08 September 2007 - 02:29 PM.

[Jnavin]

Hiker, that Technical Watch link is not working.

[Echo]

hi OGM,

makes sense.

I wonder if the majority is expecting 1525 or above before 1320? or is it only the minority that sees the possibility of SPX 1320 area before December ends?

I'm expecting 1525 before 1320 based on the strong breadth thrust we've seen since the Aug 16 lows, the Hurst 4.5 yr low, as well as several other factors such as the rydex cumulative cash flow bull/bear ratio, commercials COT stance, insider buying, etc. Outside of the fact that anything could happen, what technical evidence do you see that suggests a move to 1320? I know that we haven't closed above 1476 convincingly yet on a weekly basis, but we also haven't had but 1 decisive close below 1447 either, the next lower major daily horizontal you sited...

It is always good to keep an open mind, but looking at the data, are you more bearish and bullish going into Monday?

[hiker]

Echo

1. I am playing it defensively, and not being long much until some sustained closes over at least 1476.

2. open minded about the possibilities.

3. bottom picking strategy based on predictive tools you mention has risk until confirmed by price action. why not wait for price confirmation, other than the excuse that waiting involves "missing out" on 5% of the potential upside?

how could a trader know based on this price action alone, for how long a trading range will prevail..and following that, what direction will be taken?

4. every one has their own preference for timing entries and exits....I am simply explaining mine and at what I am looking.

5. one 50 day moving average in the chart group below is RISING. yes, the 200day ma's continue to look ok.

NYA..will 9250 horizontal continue to hold?

Edited by hiker, 08 September 2007 - 10:47 PM.

[hiker]

how 'bout waiting till this shows teens again before counting the bottom as in?:

Edited by hiker, 08 September 2007 - 10:59 PM.