19 replies to this topic

[humble1]

thanks for sharing and good luck to you, sir. you are very brave. frankly, imho, this thing looks HORRID. it could be the type of situation where a highly leveraged long (as you indicate) loses SO MUCH and SO QUICKLY that he/she never recovers. i am curious as to why you are so very confident to take such a big gamble. are you sure it is worth the risk ?

Edited by humble1, 10 September 2007 - 09:37 AM.

[phineas_gage]

Just curious, why those particular stocks ? That list is pretty much what everyone wants to buy on dip, except for GT, HDI, WM. TIF sales doing great, COH too. AAPL I can understand, kinda. but MA and STT are some of the strongest financial stocks. STT is like an ETF tollbooth, collecting money from fund flows. [/quote] I should have clarified- I've BEEN short those names. I had a great year this past month. I still have a confidence in them. GT- cyclical turnaround story requires financial leverage- at the same time as car sales and ability to extend credit to car buyers disappears. Using newly borrowed money to build expensive new HQ. HDI- sales propped by extension of credit to the least worthy borrowers. Used market glut. WM- This one should speak for itself. COH, AAPL and TIF- Cyclical turn away from luxury discretionary spending. TIF and COH charts have already rolled. AAPL is a classic 'blow off top." STT- STT has steadily moved away from its bread and butter fee businesses where margins have been compressed over the years, and has tremendous counter-party swap risk- not in the headlines yet, but the conduit story is a beginning. I think the charts echo these themes. But I'm not a zealot, and if the tape looks better, I'll cover and go away. edit: I forgot MA- the current mortgage lender of last resort- mortgage crisis is currently confined to "homestead" states- chargeoffs will be several orders of magnitude higher than MA's experience. You have to wonder why they came public in the first place? Maybe its former owners were as smart as they looked. And here's two freebies- VMC and SHLD. They've been a daytrading ATM for me on down days.

Edited by phineas_gage, 10 September 2007 - 09:44 AM.

[traderpaul]

Ogm you said "I should have clarified- I've BEEN short those names. I had a great year this past month. I still have a confidence in them."


Oh yes, you are telling us you were short while you were posting bullish posts five times a day? Is that you Zen?

[SandStorm]

OGM is very bullish because he believes that we can warp time and space. We can go from step 1 to 3 by skipping 2.

[ogm]

Ogm you said "I should have clarified- I've BEEN short those names. I had a great year this past month. I still have a confidence in them."


Oh yes, you are telling us you were short while you were posting bullish posts five times a day? Is that you Zen?

I think you mixed up the posts.

[phineas_gage]

Ogm you said "I should have clarified- I've BEEN short those names. I had a great year this past month. I still have a confidence in them."


Oh yes, you are telling us you were short while you were posting bullish posts five times a day? Is that you Zen?

No, that was me, Phineas Gage, who said that and I have been pretty consistent in my bearishness.

[lscharpen]

[quote name='traderpaul' date='Sep 10 2007, 07:55 AM' post='314072']


Ogm you said "I should have clarified- I've BEEN short those names. I had a great year this past month. I still have a confidence in them."


Traderpaul,

I believe the quote you attributed to Ogm was from PhineasGorge instead. I'm sure you'll agree that in that case it makes more sense.

Lee S.

[traderpaul]

[quote name='lscharpen' date='Sep 10 2007, 08:03 AM' post='314078'] [quote name='traderpaul' date='Sep 10 2007, 07:55 AM' post='314072']


Ogm you said "I should have clarified- I've BEEN short those names. I had a great year this past month. I still have a confidence in them."


Traderpaul,

I believe the quote you attributed to Ogm was from PhineasGorge instead. I'm sure you'll agree that in that case it makes more sense.

Lee S. [/quote]
Sorry Ogm.....My mistake....

[rkd80]

Why is everyone harping on ogm? Do you guys recall how bearish he was before everything tanked? Timing is extremely difficult in this business, he was probably too early on the bearish calls (like most of us) and probably too early on the bullish calls. ogm, the only thing that i can point out - is that your posts regarding how good/bullish everything is may be a tad overdone. otherwise keep up the good work.

[SandStorm]

I do appreicate his perspective on the market and always look forward to read what he has to say. But as you pointed out it's a bit overdone.