Edited by Espresso, 16 September 2007 - 12:54 PM.
Easy forcast
#1
Posted 16 September 2007 - 12:53 PM
#2
Posted 16 September 2007 - 02:29 PM
I'd get fully loaded long at the dip if there is one next week.Bears must lose, Da Cheif OGM and bullish "certainties" as well...
So we need a fast and deep dip under August lows, so bulls will be scared out, but so fast that most bears won't decide in time to take profits, more then a V, a big T of 1h or so...
#3
Posted 16 September 2007 - 03:11 PM
#4
Posted 16 September 2007 - 04:24 PM
Opposite scenario equally as plausible.
Given their are more bears by sentiment, and put/call ratio, I would say the probability of going up to scare the bears out of their positions are most likely. We shall see what happens next week.
Barry
#5
Posted 16 September 2007 - 05:15 PM
#6
Posted 16 September 2007 - 07:08 PM
#7
Posted 16 September 2007 - 09:14 PM
Opposite scenario equally as plausible.
Given their are more bears by sentiment, and put/call ratio, I would say the probability of going up to scare the bears out of their positions are most likely. We shall see what happens next week.
Barry
Check out the open interest on the SPY, SPX, DIA, and QQQQ's. Short term, more calls will get burned by a drop than puts will profit down to about 200-300 DOW points.
For OPEX week there are too many bulls and OPEX usually does not like making the majority happy.
KC
#8
Posted 16 September 2007 - 10:01 PM
Check out the open interest on the SPY, SPX, DIA, and QQQQ's. Short term, more calls will get burned by a drop than puts will profit down to about 200-300 DOW points.
For OPEX week there are too many bulls and OPEX usually does not like making the majority happy.
KC
I'm sorry, I don't see what you're seeing. Here is open interest for SPY. Those huge red things.. are PUTS.
CBOE open interest
Calls Puts
OEX 157487 234890
SPX 4145283 7316592
NDX 318393 410870
MNX 857028 1171648
DJX 343678 465741
Edited by ogm, 16 September 2007 - 10:04 PM.
#9
Posted 16 September 2007 - 10:12 PM
Edited by ogm, 16 September 2007 - 10:15 PM.
#10
Posted 17 September 2007 - 08:28 AM
Check out the open interest on the SPY, SPX, DIA, and QQQQ's. Short term, more calls will get burned by a drop than puts will profit down to about 200-300 DOW points.
For OPEX week there are too many bulls and OPEX usually does not like making the majority happy.
KC
I'm sorry, I don't see what you're seeing. Here is open interest for SPY. Those huge red things.. are PUTS.
CBOE open interest
Calls Puts
OEX 157487 234890
SPX 4145283 7316592
NDX 318393 410870
MNX 857028 1171648
DJX 343678 465741
Look at the Sept options by price point from Friday's close.
KC