9 replies to this topic

[espresso]

Bears must lose, Da Cheif OGM and bullish "certainties" as well... So we need a fast and deep dip under August lows, so bulls will be scared out, but so fast that most bears won't decide in time to take profits, more then a V, a big T of 1h or so...

Edited by Espresso, 16 September 2007 - 12:54 PM.

[redfoliage2]

Bears must lose, Da Cheif OGM and bullish "certainties" as well...
So we need a fast and deep dip under August lows, so bulls will be scared out, but so fast that most bears won't decide in time to take profits, more then a V, a big T of 1h or so...

I'd get fully loaded long at the dip if there is one next week.

[Jnavin]

Opposite scenario equally as plausible.

[qqqqtrdr]

Opposite scenario equally as plausible.

Given their are more bears by sentiment, and put/call ratio, I would say the probability of going up to scare the bears out of their positions are most likely. We shall see what happens next week.

Barry

[cgnx]

I say we rise into the news and then sell off.

[ogm]

I think absolutely everyone is expecting sell off on the news.....

[kc135a]

Opposite scenario equally as plausible.

Given their are more bears by sentiment, and put/call ratio, I would say the probability of going up to scare the bears out of their positions are most likely. We shall see what happens next week.

Barry

Check out the open interest on the SPY, SPX, DIA, and QQQQ's. Short term, more calls will get burned by a drop than puts will profit down to about 200-300 DOW points.

For OPEX week there are too many bulls and OPEX usually does not like making the majority happy.

KC

[ogm]

Check out the open interest on the SPY, SPX, DIA, and QQQQ's. Short term, more calls will get burned by a drop than puts will profit down to about 200-300 DOW points.

For OPEX week there are too many bulls and OPEX usually does not like making the majority happy.

KC

I'm sorry, I don't see what you're seeing. Here is open interest for SPY. Those huge red things.. are PUTS.

CBOE open interest

Calls Puts
OEX 157487 234890
SPX 4145283 7316592
NDX 318393 410870
MNX 857028 1171648
DJX 343678 465741

Edited by ogm, 16 September 2007 - 10:04 PM.

[ogm]

Looking at open interest the 149 strike will probably burn the most. As in... unchanged from here. Wouldn't that be a surprize ? SPY puts open interest. 147.00 109,843 148.00 103,049 149.00 67,356 150.00 103,355 151.00 30,833 SPY calls Open interest 147.00 59,627 148.00 66,215 149.00 72,344 150.00 116,912 151.00 82,361

Edited by ogm, 16 September 2007 - 10:15 PM.

[kc135a]

Check out the open interest on the SPY, SPX, DIA, and QQQQ's. Short term, more calls will get burned by a drop than puts will profit down to about 200-300 DOW points.

For OPEX week there are too many bulls and OPEX usually does not like making the majority happy.

KC

I'm sorry, I don't see what you're seeing. Here is open interest for SPY. Those huge red things.. are PUTS.

CBOE open interest

Calls Puts
OEX 157487 234890
SPX 4145283 7316592
NDX 318393 410870
MNX 857028 1171648
DJX 343678 465741

Look at the Sept options by price point from Friday's close.

KC