5 replies to this topic

[spielchekr]

Well, here's a first for this remarkable bull run. As of today, this index has shot above 1 deviation from the 200ma, or 411.82 points, or 4.34%. All this with only one half of the cylinders firing. Define breadth again for me?

FWIW, I truly believe it was an error to not allow the indices to double bottom two weeks ago. I have reason believe that the market would have taken care of itself, thank you very much, had it been allowed to do so.

Sometimes, one can over-nurse an injury only to create an invalid.

[ogm]

The market DID double bottom. Take a look at MCO chart. First it was a historicaly low MCO reading on Aug 6 that happened only 5 times in past 10 years. And then on August 16 the price put in a lower low, while MCO made a positive divergence.

[spielchekr]

I'm referring to a double bottom per convention, not a comparative divergence. A succesful retest of the low price region, in other words.



Double Bottom: A bullish reversal chart pattern showing two consecutive troughs that are roughly equal, with a moderate peak in-between, concluding with a resistance breakout. See ChartSchool article on Double Bottom (Reversal).



http://stockcharts.c..._d#doublebottom

[Russ]

Spielchekr, Are you predicting the market goes back down tomorrow?

[spielchekr]

Spielchekr, Are you predicting the market goes back down tomorrow?

It can't go back down. Correction has been exchanged for inflation. What better place is there for inflation to first appear than in stocks? There is gobs and gobs of inflation that must be priced in now. Stocks get the first crack at it, as they do with everything else. And only fools will not go out in the next few days and max out all of their credit cards to buy truckloads of goods at today's prices.
What I'm saying is that the Fed is doing the equivalent of treating aches and pains with antibiotics and morphine. Given a little more time, this would have resolved itself. Ben, George et al have made it abundantly clear that the market cannot be trusted to fend for itself because all of the "right" people have not been rewarded by it. This cannot have a good outcome. But live for today.

[Russ]

Spielchekr, Are you predicting the market goes back down tomorrow?

It can't go back down. Correction has been exchanged for inflation. What better place is there for inflation to first appear than in stocks? There is gobs and gobs of inflation that must be priced in now. Stocks get the first crack at it, as they do with everything else. And only fools will not go out in the next few days and max out all of their credit cards to buy truckloads of goods at today's prices.
What I'm saying is that the Fed is doing the equivalent of treating aches and pains with antibiotics and morphine. Given a little more time, this would have resolved itself. Ben, George et al have made it abundantly clear that the market cannot be trusted to fend for itself because all of the "right" people have not been rewarded by it. This cannot have a good outcome. But live for today.

They are obviously very worried. Unfortunately I cannot disagree with you, runaway inflation is not something that is going to be very pleasant especially for the poorer members of society.