7 replies to this topic

[arbman]

The liquidity picture has been considerably altered now, imagine the Fed cutting another 0.25% or 0.5% in the next Fed meeting (Oct 30/31)!!! I was thinking the Fed would cut about 0.75% to 1.0% total, basically if they cut 2 or 3 more times, it will probably exceed 1%. The longer term implications are very bullish for a while, imho.

The 20 wk FLD will be triggered with a target of 1700 by mid Dec, if SPX rallies above 1520s in the next few days/weeks. I think the SPX expiration will be around 1534 on Friday. I expect a pull back next week, but the basis of long entries will be higher, 1510 should probably hold from here...

OTOH, the wall of worry is mainly around the oil over $80, reseting mortgages in a weak credit environment...

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=D&b=5&g=0&i=p31675632370&r=1487&.png

Good luck,
- kisa

[airedale88]

kis. in an earlier post you wrote...."the Hurst cycle periods are still elongating, it means the bottoming phase is not complete, the activity is still not elevated enough to warrant any aggressive buying. Any upside will come back and retest, imho. The high volume lows indicate most of the selling is done, the internal low is probably here. The seasonal harmonics are more dominant lately ......"



i was going to ask you about those statements before today's move. do you still believe the bottoming process is not complete, any upside will retest (the aug low ?) ? seasonal harmonics more dominant, what leads you to that conclusion?

[arbman]

First of, I would like to congratulate you with your astute analysis earlier, I hope I will be as good as you one day. I guess the new theory is that the Fed will not let the credit markets deteriorate into the shopping season from here. Personally, looking at my liquidity picture earlier and the internal strength improving slowly so far, I thought the Aug lows could be approached a bit during the next 10 wk low, especially had the Fed not done the unthinkable and promised infinite liquidity in a raging commodity bull market. But, I expect now the volatility to quickly crash from here with the abundant liquidity heading to the markets and switch the gears, we should see this in the ST cycles soon. I think every pull back will get bought again and the cycle periods will start to get shorter... Best, - kisa

[youmast]

My projection for Q4 that I published on ssignal tonight shows kinda different targets, stricly based on my options analysis as well as short-term mid-term cycles. We do have another 3-4 days of rolling, but as of today.... I would be very surprised if SPX will rise up to 1700 this quarter. That's a wrong estimate.

[relax]

youmast what is your projection - closer to 1.610

[youmast]

youmast what is your projection - closer to 1.610

I do have very clear DIRECTIONAL projections for the next quarter (up and down reversal time). I did finish "the rough cut" price projection, but the final cut will be ready on Monday-Tuesday next week. I need to see expiration numbers, and the first day of trading after expiration.

Of course I promise to publish this analysis here as usual.... on the next 4X expiration in mid December.



P.S. Just for fun...

Kisa, I must admit there's no liquidity crisis. At least in Africa.

I'm getting a lot of Nigerian spam on email. Their prices went through the roof over the last few month. At the beginning of this year they promissed no more than $5-6 mils. Now I've got mail with almost $20 mil offer.

THAT'S BULLISH


".....I AM MR IBRU KUMAR THE CHIEF AUDITOR INCHARGE OF FOREIGN REMITTANCE UNIT of our bank and i have had the intent to contact you over this financial transaction worth the sum of NINTEEN MILLION, THREE HUNDRED THOUSAND UNITED STATES DOLLARS ($19,300,000.00 ) for our success.This is an abandoned sum that belongs to one of our bank foreign customers who died along with his entire family through plane crash disaster since few years ago........."

HOW MANY FRACKING IDIOTS IN THIS WORLD?!!

[arbman]

Youmast, you have to tell us a number...

I would be very surprised if SPX will rise up to 1700 this quarter. That's a wrong estimate.

I think 1560-1580 by early October and a pull back into Oct, then another rally in Nov-Dec.

No downside projection will be triggered until 1480 or so at the next 10 wk cycle low and it appears to come too late. The market needs to turn around and rush lower from here to generate any serious downside...

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&i=p67920216205&r=7243&.png

- kisa

[youmast]

Youmast, you have to tell us a number...
- kisa

I'd like to... but it will be unfair for other folks "who already know"