6 replies to this topic

[Islander]

Foreign investors are looking at headlines today and getting ready to bail out. They will sell starting soon. Bond act today fades the FED. I will know tomorrow, but I think it was foreign demoninated holder selling that drove bonds down today. The only good thing I see is the A/D. That is not enough. The fed and Paulson have lost the bet before the cards were all on the table. best, Islander

[Tor]

Foreign investors are looking at headlines today and getting ready to bail out.

They will sell starting soon. Bond act today fades the FED. I will know tomorrow, but I think it was foreign demoninated holder selling that drove bonds down today.

The only good thing I see is the A/D. That is not enough.

The fed and Paulson have lost the bet before the cards were all on the table.

best, Islander

Not sdure what u are saying?....buy the dollar sell gold??

good trading.

[Islander]

[quote name='Tor' post='316408' date='Sep 20 2007, 03:44 PM']
[quote name='Islander' post='316407' date='Sep 20 2007, 04:41 PM']
Foreign investors are looking at headlines today and getting ready to bail out.

They will sell starting soon. Bond act today fades the FED. I will know tomorrow, but I think it was foreign demoninated holder selling that drove bonds down today.

The only good thing I see is the A/D. That is not enough.

The fed and Paulson have lost the bet before the cards were all on the table.

best, Islander
[/quote]

Not sdure what u are saying?....buy the dollar sell gold??

good trading.
[/quote]


[quote name='Islander' date='Sep 20 2007, 03:47 PM' post='316411']
[quote name='Tor' post='316408' date='Sep 20 2007, 03:44 PM']
[quote name='Islander' post='316407' date='Sep 20 2007, 04:41 PM']
Foreign investors are looking at headlines today and getting ready to bail out.

They will sell starting soon. Bond act today fades the FED. I will know tomorrow, but I think it was foreign demoninated holder selling that drove bonds down today.

The only good thing I see is the A/D. That is not enough.

The fed and Paulson have lost the bet before the cards were all on the table.

best, Islander
[/quote]

Not sdure what u are saying?....buy the dollar sell gold??

No, I did not say that: Foreign holders of US equities will not want them if the dollar takes away gains. The dollar is in trouble and yes I would buy gold, silver, and currencies. I am sorry to have confused you, but it is just my nature.

Respectfully, Islander

[arbman]

Islander, I was saying the same in the oil thread below. What is it going to be? They will not buy the US Treasuries since the currency is at risk? This will drive the long term rates higher. The yield curve would steepen since the Fed is officially cutting. This is what the Fed would like to see, a steeper yield curve. Once the inflationary pressures balance out, it will be actually very good for the financials and growth. Higher long term rates would keep the commodity bull in check... So, I think near term, we will most likely see the long end bonds selling here and the stocks only pulling back, then off to the races for the higher highs... These make me bullish for the IT, somewhat neutral for the LT because I don't see the commodities retreating a whole lot, so I don't think the inflationary pressures are going down a whole lot. The free money today will have to be eventually paid back... BTW, we are near 1928-1929 now, the debt problems effected the slower growing European economies more than US, US acted instead by lowering its rates, next there will be a bigger bubble in the stock markets and most likely another debt wipe-out, hopefully not in 1930s style. Jeremy Grantham says there will be for the next 4-5 yrs with at least one bank going down... - kisa

Edited by kisacik, 20 September 2007 - 04:08 PM.

[Islander]

Thanks, K . My thinking is more negative. In phase one interest rates go up (like today) and stocks crater . Phase two the economy briefly picks up as you suggest, but the dollar collaspes and foreign holders pressure for a US rate increase or an orderly liquidation of U.S. debt which the US is powerless to honor. Either way US interest rates go up again (no credit and no sales of treasuries) and the stocks crater again this time down hard and long. Phase three, the US has an asset devaluation akin to the '29 depression. Gold is the investment of choice. AM I negative? yes and just a little scared. This mess is beyond a quick fix and beyond the integrity of the Fed or Congress to address honestly. Today they were in Congress discussing a FIX for subprime lenders. insanity, they have no idea where we are internationally with our creditors. I have a mouse hole set up off shore for retreating. That is how I am thinking Kisca and I am ashamed to say that. Best, Islander.

[arbman]

Thank you for your ideas, but if there was such a risk, it would be immediately picked up by the smart bond traders. So far I see nothing of that indication, in fact completely the opposite...



The implied volatilites are lined up nicely and not suggesting much risk...

http://ichart.financ...,^QQV,^VXO&.png

- kisa

[darnelds]

In a deflationary disaster such as this, shouldn't we see bonds continue to go up?