5 replies to this topic

[dcengr]

let it ride... I have 70%+ chance it goes down starting today.... but thats not 100% chance eh?

[IndexTrader]

70% based on what? IT

[dcengr]

70% based on what?

IT

RSI2 system, back tested to 2000...

When RSI2 hit this level of extreme for this many days, OIH gave back more than 70% of the times, with a decent # of occurances to be statistically significant.

[isaac613]

[quote name='dcengr' date='Sep 21 2007, 09:59 AM' post='316510']
let it ride...

I have 70%+ chance it goes down starting today.... but thats not 100% chance eh?
[/quote
Where do you think oih will go. How many percent down?

[dcengr]

Where do you think oih will go. How many percent down?

Avg % down after this signal has been 2% before the order is given to 'take profit'.

But I'll likely put a stop after the 'take profit' signal comes in and let it ride a bit.

If I get a take profit signal instead of 'get the hell out of dodge signal'

Long + Short Long Only Short Only Buy & Hold
Net Profit $41,173.72 $0.00 $41,173.72 $103,803.35
Profit per Bar $433.41 $0.00 $433.41 $62.46

Number of Trades 40 0 40 1
Avg Profit/Loss $1,029.34 $0.00 $1,029.34 $103,803.35
Avg Profit/Loss % 1.01% 0.00% 1.01% 104.42%
Avg Bars Held 2.38 0.00 2.38 1,662.00

Winning Trades 29 0 29 1
Winning % 72.50% N/A 72.50% 100.00%
Gross Profit $55,870.39 $0.00 $55,870.39 $103,803.35
Avg Profit $1,926.57 $0.00 $1,926.57 $103,803.35
Avg Profit % 1.89% 0.00% 1.89% 104.42%
Avg Bars Held 1.69 0.00 1.69 1,662.00
Max Consecutive 8 0 8 N/A

Losing Trades 11 0 11 0
Losing % 27.50% N/A 27.50% 0.00%
Gross Loss $-14,696.67 $0.00 $-14,696.67 $0.00
Avg Loss $-1,336.06 $0.00 $-1,336.06 $0.00
Avg Loss % -1.32% 0.00% -1.32% 0.00%
Avg Bars Held 4.18 0.00 4.18 0.00
Max Consecutive 3 0 3 N/A

Max Drawdown $-9,452.16 $0.00 $-9,452.16 $-57,628.56
Max Drawdown Date 06/17/05 N/A 06/17/05 09/26/01

Profit Factor 3.80 0.00 3.80 INF
Recovery Factor 4.36 N/A 4.36 1.80
Payoff Ratio 1.44 0.00 1.44 INF
Ulcer Index 13.60 0.00 13.60 853.98
Wealth-Lab Error Term 69.83 0.00 69.83 733.20
Luck Coefficient 3.85 0.00 3.85 1.00
Pessimistic Rate of Return 2.37 0.00 2.37 0.00

Edited by dcengr, 21 September 2007 - 09:22 AM.

[Jnavin]

Excellent trade. What about the airlines stocks as buys?