1 reply to this topic

[arbman]

When the index broke above 1510, I said that breaking above 1520s would trigger the 20 wk FLD in a few days. So, I was developing on this idea about the time and price targets. We have roughly a 150 points run in hand until the end of Dec. This is about 13 weeks. The 5 wk cycle lows line up from here as the middle of Oct, end of Nov and early January and minor 2.5 wk cycle pull backs in between. So, there are possibly 3 flat weeks and the topping action pretty much in the second half of Dec (or 2-3 wks) toward the 20 wk cycle low. So, the bulk of the bullish action must happen in early Oct (like now), late Oct and pretty much the first half of Nov until Thanksgiving OPEX. I predict it will be about a 120 points run during this time and a last squeeze in the first half of Dec. This is roughly 120 / (13 - 5) = 15-20 points per week and a possible last hurrah of 30 points in the first 2 weeks of Dec right after the Thanksgiving sell off (also the 5 wk low). This is an aggressive advance. I would not bother with any short ideas here, I would only focus on predicting the dips and go long. The dips will be bought, imho... Good luck, - kisa

Edited by kisacik, 24 September 2007 - 10:47 AM.

[arbman]

The implied volatility on NDX shot up today before the close, many other measures are also suggesting a short term test of the new volatility trend. The tick last week on NYSE was not what I would like to see after the Fed day, NASDAQ tick is kind of showing more support overall. It could be due to the new tick rule, but I didn't really see much of an initiation type buying pressures on Thu and Friday by using the 15-min charts. I think the new volatility trend is down, but there needs to be a good test. We are right about to witness whether that test will prove the beginning of a longer term uptrend this week. The breadth is not leading to the downside at the moment, it is still recovering from the lows. So, I am hedged on my existing long positions, but I will be looking to buy this week during this pull back, I think it will be proven to be a pull back... - kisa