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[nicolasillo]

http://www.marketora...rticle2236.html

[linrom1]

http://www.marketora...rticle2236.html

He has the same count for every market in the world SPX, SSE, MXX etc except DJI. That count is based on DJI from 1932-1949. He is believer in Elliot Wave in all these circumstances except when Elliot Wave does not work---he has big problem when it comes to DJI.

So tracking the DJIA leaves you facing the terrifying conclusion that the greatest bear market since 1929 is upon you with a red wave A carrying the DJIA around 10,000 soon to be followed by a red B wave (not shown) and a deadly red wave C below 8,000 (not shown) while this ABC would only be a wave (A) within an (A)(© bear market taking the DJIA below 400…………

Well, in case you now feel like shooting yourself a couple of bullets into the head (please imagine what such a long term fall means in macroeconomic terms) , I wish that you use this brain inside your head just for a few seconds before shooting it: how do you think this DJIA wave scheme is going to fall into synchronicity with the wave scheme you know of about the Shanghai Composite Index ? ……………

So what to do? Just throw it out, ignore it.

Please read the question one more time and ponder about it…… Now you can think about the US economy and how it has GROWN in size and maturity since the 40's when Elliott discovered his “secret of human nature” …… And remember this “secret” is about the “collective human behavior”…..

Do you get my point ?

IF the DJIA WAS a good way to gauge the COLLECTIVE mind at a time when the US economy was mainly based on industry and much smaller than today, do you think this DJIA IS STILL TODAY an appropriate gauge for the collective behaviour of investors AFTER the US economy has considerably GROWN in size over more than 60 years ?

So "collective human behavior does not always work(ie is not predictable.)! Funny, how this is the same excuse that Greenspan gave for his failure to predict the housing crisis.

Edited by linrom1, 25 September 2007 - 12:25 AM.