8 replies to this topic

[Rogerdodger]

After the FED rally, I noted that we might get a bit more rally but a top was near...LINK
Seems like the 1st quarter moon was a top 9/19!
MAN it looks like a carbon copy of July...so far...
Supposed to be 6 days of strength at the open tomorrow.
Any end of quarter dressing...or undressing?
Sentiment seems about the same.
Airedale's cycles make me think twice about any big sell-off.
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&i=p51570748413&a=95529637&r=2552.png

Edited by Rogerdodger, 26 September 2007 - 11:36 PM.

[ogm]

Sentiment is nowhere near the same. And the internals are not the same.

[ogm]

Back then we were at the end of a long setup with multiple negative divergences and erroding internals.

This time we're right in the middle of a big momentum supported advance.

Nothing similar.


For example.. Summation today has reaccelerated again. That wouldn't be the case, if we were turning around for a dump. Summation would be slowing and trying to curl down. If anything looks like a flag type consolidation last few days, before we take out the highs.

Edited by ogm, 26 September 2007 - 09:08 PM.

[Rogerdodger]

For example.. Summation today has reaccelerated again. That wouldn't be the case, if we were turning around for a dump. Summation would be slowing and trying to curl down. If anything looks like a flag type consolidation last few days, before we take out the highs.

Good observation.
That's where my money is.

SOME sentiment measures are close but...
after Wednesday's 7/19 close (before the big red candle) we had 29% fully long & 11% fully short.
Tonight: 21% fully long, 37% fully short!
So we (TT pollees) are much more bearish going into tomorrow ...so far.

TSP was on a sell:
07/16/07 - 07/20/07 54% 31% 1.74 -1 -1.19% 1534.10 413 S
Now on a BUY:
09/24/07 - 09/28/07 51% 33% 1.55 -1 408 B
Percents are pretty close, but enough.

Edited by Rogerdodger, 26 September 2007 - 09:43 PM.

[Frac_Man]

I'm still waiting ...................

Hank

After the FED rally, I noted that we might get a bit more rally but a top was near...LINK
Seems like the 1st quarter moon was a top 9/19!
MAN it looks like a carbon copy of July...so far...
Supposed to be 6 days of strength at the open tomorrow.
Any end of quarter dressing...or undressing?
Sentiment seems about the same.
Airedale's cycles make me think twice about and big sell-off.
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&i=p51570748413&a=95529637&r=2552.png

[vitaminm]

Energy....daily sell /may drag index down
http://finance.yahoo...s=O...I&c=^GSPC

[arbman]

I said about this pattern yesterday. But the momentum is also totally different, back then it was a vaining momentum in the higher time frames, right now, it appears to be a explosive momentum that just let some of the overbought air out and ready to carry on...

That's also where my money is...

[arbman]

it's supposed to read as "wanning", not veining...

[arbman]

So, the difference was in the momentum...

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=4&dy=0&i=p75431700168&r=1827&.png