6 replies to this topic

[Trend-Signals]

We now have $TRAN cooperating with DOW as we can see on $TRAN chart. Markets are, so far, reflecting 1998 scenario.




http://investorshub....age_id=23100608


Price actions will likely reflect "1998 scenario" after the Fed rate cut on 10/15/1998 as the market continued traded up.

I commented on 1997-1998 scenario since 8/16/2007 Climactic reversal as alerted that VIX traded to 1997 level suggesting that we will likely see 1997 scenario.

As noted earlier, my view is not just based on the VIX level, but also based on the other market analysis which I have noted such as LT view, Breadth analysis and market sentimet.

Based on the further analysis, it suggests that we will likely see "1998 Scenaro" after the Fed rate cut.

As noted earlier, price action during the next week will be pivotal.


http://investorshub....age_id=22365390

http://www.stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=5&dy=0&i=p58201344519&a=117483454&r=770.png

http://www.stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$INDU&p=D&yr=0&mn=5&dy=0&i=p58201344519&a=117483238&r=800.png

http://www.stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$INDU&p=D&st=1998-07-01&en=1999-01-31&i=p16491421578&a=96178216&r=520.png

http://www.stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=D&st=1998-07-01&en=1999-01-31&i=p17142721686&a=117481743&r=953.png

http://www.stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$TRAN&p=W&st=1995-01-01&i=p61522042335&a=117481949&r=623.png

http://www.stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$TRAN:$INDU&p=W&st=1980-10-09&i=p64687489082&a=84527620&r=327.png

[Cirrus]

Outstanding post...thanks for the charts.

[Trend-Signals]

Outstanding post...thanks for the charts.

Thanks

If market can get over SPX 1530 fortress, we can be a bit more positive.

So far SPX 1530 to be tough resistance.

best of luck with trades

[Trend-Signals]

SPX 1530!!

[Trend-Signals]

SPX closed at 1531.38 scrimmage line. As for 1997 vs 1998 scenario.... back to drawing board and need to do further analysis.

[Trend-Signals]

Markets are approaching to breakout zone, SPX 1555, DOW 14000, and Nasdaq 2525.

Because we now have overbought daily price actions, I revisited the 1998 price action pattern.

The price pattern looks similar as we can see on the MACD actions that price has advanced even with divergences.

However, it is better to be prepared for either a breakout or 2-3 weeks pull back from the SPX 1555 resistance.


9/27/07

http://investorshub....age_id=23204977


We now have $TRAN cooperating with DOW as we can see on $TRAN chart. Markets are, so far, reflecting 1998 scenario.

http://investorshub....age_id=23100608


Price actions will likely reflect "1998 scenario" after the Fed rate cut on 10/15/1998 as the market continued traded up.

I commented on 1997-1998 scenario since 8/16/2007 Climactic reversal as alerted that VIX traded to 1997 level suggesting that we will likely see 1997 scenario.

As noted earlier, my view is not just based on the VIX level, but also based on the other market analysis which I have noted such as LT view, Breadth analysis and market sentimet.

Based on the further analysis, it suggests that we will likely see "1998 Scenaro" after the Fed rate cut.

As noted earlier, price action during the next week will be pivotal.


http://investorshub....age_id=22365390

http://www.stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$INDU&p=D&st=1998-07-01&en=1999-01-31&i=p31595672082&a=96178216&r=279.png
http://www.stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$INDU&p=D&yr=0&mn=5&dy=0&i=p54891065640&a=117483238&r=534.png
http://www.stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=D&st=1998-07-01&en=1999-01-31&i=p47380608279&a=117481743&r=395.png
http://www.stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=5&dy=0&i=p99701641840&a=117483454&r=716.png

[Doug]

These two charts you provided illustrate the indicator I examine to forecast directional changes in major trends. That is to say when we are moving from a bull to a bear market or vice versa.

The TRAN always leads the rest of the market by several months. It has never failed to indicate a major trend change. Your example below shows this clearly and is why I believe we will enter into a bear cycle within a few months.


Regards,


http://www.stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$TRAN&p=W&st=1995-01-01&i=p61522042335&a=117481949&r=623.png

http://www.stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$TRAN:$INDU&p=W&st=1980-10-09&i=p64687489082&a=84527620&r=327.png