20 replies to this topic

[toni]

In the Chicago area prices seem flat to down slightly. But there are an enormous number of houses either on the market or people waiting until prices start to move up to put their houses on the market. And forclosed houses are being sold at auction for 30 to 50% below what people who want to sell are asking. For the most part houses listed for sale are just sitting there. Sellers won't lower there prices. When RE agents can find a bid (and there are not many) it is 20 to 40% below asking price. RE agents, who work on commission, are starving. Everyone seems to be pinning their hopes on a rebound in RE in the spring. toni b

Edited by toni, 27 September 2007 - 04:50 PM.

[pdx5]

My experience is that owning a condo pays well. My first ownership was a luxury condo in Chicago burbs. After living there for 17 years, my monthly principal & interest stayed exactly same! Tax & HOA fees went up over the years resulting in an increase of 40% in total monthly payments over 17 years! Rents of similar units more than doubled in the same period. And finally when I sold it, there was a capital gain of 150% over original cost. So, it beat renting by a long stick. As a side benefit, the neighbors in the condo building of 20 units were much nicer, more civilized, and friendlier than any rental apartments I lived in, which were many, atleast 10 in Chicago & burbs during my bachelor heydays.

Edited by pdx5, 27 September 2007 - 07:00 PM.

[SemiBizz]

Prices for my local community are off 15% to 19% from the highs of late 2005. It looks like it has further to go here in the northern SF Bay Area.

Northern SF Bay Area, I live right across the GG Bridge and prices still holding firm although volume is dropping off...



Single-family homes sales slide, median jumps



Marin's median home price hit the $1 million mark again last month, but sales of homes slid more than 32 percent compared with this time last year, a real estate research firm reported Thursday.



August's median price for single-family homes rose 8.7 percent from August 2006, when the median price was $920,000. The median price for condominiums in Marin last month - $520,000 - dropped 4.8 percent from $546,500 in August 2006.

But the number of homes that changed hands took a dive, DataQuick Information Systems of La Jolla reported.

In August, 201 single-family homes were sold, compared with 299 at the same time last year. The number of homes sold in July was 237. The same held true for condominium sales, which dropped 18.6 percent from 70 in August 2006 to 57 last month.

The rise in the median - which has hit the $1 million mark three times this year - combined with the decline in volume signals a stable luxury market making up for the lagging low end that has been most affected by the mortgage meltdown, analysts said. "Until the first-time home buyer can get back in the market in a strong way I think we'll see these trends for a while," said Valerie Castellana, president of the Marin Association of Realtors. "It will just take time."



In Marin, homes priced under $1 million were off by 39.8 percent between 2006 and 2007, she said.

Specifically, in Novato, single-family homes sales were half of what they were a year ago, DataQuick analysts said. In August, 33 houses sold in the city, compared with 72 a year ago, according to DataQuick. In contrast, there was only a 23 percent drop-off in Mill Valley, with 35 homes sold last month compared with 46 a year earlier. In Tiburon and Belvedere, sales

(Click to enlarge)remained flat, with 16 homes sold in August of this year and last.



Regionally, Bay Area homes sold at the slowest pace in 15 years last month. Buyers, sellers and lenders seem to be waiting out the uncertainty coloring the market, according to DataQuick. A total of 7,299 new and resale houses and condos were sold in the Bay Area in August. That was down 1.7 percent from 7,423 in July, and down 24.9 percent from 9,713 for August a year ago.

The median price paid for a Bay Area home was $655,000 last month. That was down 1.5 percent from the June and July peak of $665,000, and up 4 percent from $630,000 in August a year ago.

Yet to fully play out is the impact tighter lending practices, including restrictions this summer on jumbo loans over $417,000, have had on markets such as Marin, DataQuick analyst Andrew LePage said.

In Marin, 76.9 percent of borrowers took out jumbo loans in August. In the last week of the month, that number dropped to 69.1 percent, LePage said.

"You can say that the jumbo situation had some impact on sales," he said. "It was not a large one - it was noticeable in the last week of the month. What's unclear is if this is the beginning of a trend." Realtor Kira Swaim, co-owner of San Rafael-based Tam Realty, said continued real estate jitters make it a great time to buy.



"There's a lot of good stuff on the market right now that's well priced," she said. "We're seeing a lot of price reductions." Nervous sellers need to take a breath, she said. "I think it's like anything. When the media gets ahold of it, when they listen to it every day and read it every day, they start to panic," she said. "If they have a sellable home and it's priced at the right price, we don't want them to drop prices. It's going to take a little time to sell your home."

[nimblebear]

"Prices are falling, but not here..."

Southwest Ohio home prices remained relatively flat, posting a median sale price in July of $145,250, compared with $144,900 for the same period last year, according to the Cincinnati Area Board of Realtors and the National Association of Realtors. The median is where half of homes sell for more and half for less.

Northern Kentucky posted a 1.4 percent increase in home prices in July compared with the same month in 2006, according to the Northern Kentucky Association of Realtors. The median sale price rang in at $140,000, compared with $138,000 a year ago.

They're "lying". Actually, it's just that folks haven't given up on their prices yet. The bid didn't hold, it's that lower and mid end homes just didn't sell.

The place across the street is now on the market 360 days. They have come down 10% so far, and no nibbles. In reality, real prices have fallen almost everywhere and by quite a bit. It's just that they don't price houses like the stock market.

Mark

Time value of money. Any honest real estate agent will tell you to price it right. Selling it later rather than sooner is a losing proposition. Each day you hold out you lose money especially in a falling market.

When you wait long and then lower your price, you will end up selling at much lower pirce than if you simply priced it right from the start. Selfish agents (and dumb ones too) price the value high to get the listing. They tell people what they want to hear. A platitude of false hopes.

What do they care if you have to drop the price ? Its why the average income for an agent is below $30k . So many people think they can do it, try it for a couple of years, die of starvation, get their butt kicked and move on.

Good ones who stick with it, obviously make much more, but there are so few of them percentage wise, that the transients skew the numbers.

Its unfortunate people get so emotionally attached to their houses. Its a piece of land with 4 walls and a roof. You be all warm and fuzzy about it while you are in it, but if you gotta move, cut the fuzzy crap and sell it fast. You can start the fuzzy comfort crap in the new one provided you aren't already in over your head.

Like Nicholson says " You (they) can't handle the truth !"

Edited by nimblebear, 27 September 2007 - 07:28 PM.

[PorkLoin]

Niiblebear, good comments, and that makes sense to me - "price it right." Mark - agreed, sellers just haven't really caved in yet. Probably gonna come, though, and that ought to provoke a buying opportunity of some type when it does come. My wife and I are still sort of looking for a nice big place to retire in or keep for a good while. No hurry, though, and obviously we're glad we didn't rush the deal. Doug

[SimpleTone]

It is rather interesting that according to Freakonomics, RE agents get more for their own houses and they stay on the market longer. This is explained in logical terms as to the RE agents best interest when it comes to selling a clients house vs selling their own. In this market I would price to sell however, because who knows how far a knife falls.

[OEXCHAOS]

That and who wants to pay a mortgage (and taxes--often automatically indexed higher every year) on a house you don't live in? I'm flummoxed that some of these folks are still demanding their price as the death of a thousand cuts drains their cashflow... Hope springs eternal, I guess. THOUGH, if there was a sudden increase in demand they might be rewarded. I just don't see it. Mark

[spielchekr]

I don't see this happening unless and until RE sellers capitulate, but turning discounted homes into rental homes would seem like the next new wave of speculation in the RE front. It's the service of providing the rental lifestyle to folks abandoning the homeowner lifestyle. Those folks have to live somewhere. That spectrum of REITS might do quite well in the not so distant future. Just thinking out loud. I can remember from the 1980's how a cottage industry of rental-finders mushroomed up. At one point it became so diffucult to locate rentals that I even had to resort to using that "service" once (and what a scam that was). Now here's a business model idea. Proactively find those people looking to convert from homeowners to renters, buy their houses and let them continue living there as renters. That saves them the expense and grief of relocating, and instantly makes the new rental property occupied. Hmmm.

[OEXCHAOS]

Right idea, but there has to be a willingness to sell at deeply discounted pricing to make it work. BUT a great, experienced management company, with deep pockets, might well be able to be set up with the banks to efficiently convert the foreclosure process into something that doesn't cost everyone so much. That will likely take a pretty desperate banking sector to go for, however. They would be the sticking point and they're resistant to change. Still, it's probably a great idea for the right set of parties in the right market. Mark

[SemiBizz]

It's still about location, location, location. Prices would have to tumble SEVERELY to get me to move. And for whatever reason, median prices keep going higher here.