13 replies to this topic

[NAV]

The volatility has started to drop again. The daily ranges are getting compressed, making it harder to make daytrades, unless one is scalping. The market is not rewarding unless one is in the market and carrying positions overnight. The gap-up or gap-downs consume more than half of the daily range in many cases, which makes it harder to chase. Once the gap-move exhausts, there's no grand failures in the opposite direction to capitalize on, cuz it just consolidates after that. Momentum thrusts are not getting follow thrus. Many a times momentum thrust fails temporarily and gets swiftly reversed i.e no momo follow thru. Many a times there are momentum failures, like one that happened yesterday afternoon, invites shorting and snaps back on ya. Big moves happen in a few hours and many days are spent in consolidation, which means you gotta be in the market to capitalize on them. All these to me says that now we have entered a strongly trending phase, where trend trumps momentum and positioning for swing trades or position trades with moderate leverage is the way to go. Again, that's just my experience and observation. I will be mostly looking for swing trades going forward with 100-200% leverage using ETFs/Futures. Are you guys experiencing the same or is it just me ?

[eminimee]

I see it as topping action...waiting for that tiny new high above the high on Sept 19th on OEX. Still short NQ from yesterday at average cost of 2113.50...long ES at 1534 which is about a 50% hedge. Norton would kill me for saying this...but I think it's getting sold on these morning pops...distribution

Edited by Teaparty, 27 September 2007 - 12:56 PM.

[endisnear]

calm before the storm.

[NAV]

I see it as topping action...waiting for that tiny new high above the high on Sept 19th on OEX. Still short NQ from yesterday at average cost of 2113.50...long ES at 1534 which is about a 50% hedge. Norton would kill me for saying this...but I think it's getting sold on these morning pops...distribution

Tea,

I am not just talking about the last 2-3 days. Something i have been observing for over 2-3 weeks.

As far as daily charts are concerned, we are ways from any top of significance in my work, not even ST term tops. Yes we could get these minor 20-30 point VST reactions on SPX, nothing more. Again JMO.

We are headed higher Last famous words...

Edited by NAV, 27 September 2007 - 01:05 PM.

[eminimee]

Okay...time frame is important ....I agree then....when I say "top" ....it's a top of a wave 1 of a big ED....I think we get at least 1475 for bottom of 2. PS..that's if I haven't mentioned it before..lol

Edited by Teaparty, 27 September 2007 - 01:09 PM.

[norton]

I see it as topping action...waiting for that tiny new high above the high on Sept 19th on OEX. Still short NQ from yesterday at average cost of 2113.50...long ES at 1534 which is about a 50% hedge. Norton would kill me for saying this...but I think it's getting sold on these morning pops...distribution

-----------------------------------
Mini, I about fell out of my chair laughing!
Ah, hedging .... the great commission doubling, extra anxiety adding, invention!
I love your charts and your comments. Please let the pikers steal some stuff, they don't know what to do with it anyway.
Love,
Norton (back to LT lurk)

[ogm]

Just an observation for today's action. Broader NYSE comp is outperforming big time. It just hit new daily high so did XLF, as the DOW and S&P are flat. Transports and Financials also improving today. The leaders.. DOW and NDX have stalled, but underneath the market has a lot of broad strength.

Edited by ogm, 27 September 2007 - 01:17 PM.

[linrom1]

Okay...time frame is important ....I agree then....when I say "top" ....it's a top of a wave 1 of a big ED....I think we get at least 1475 for bottom of 2.

PS..that's if I haven't mentioned it before..lol

Tea,

What do you mean by ED wave---primary cycle?

[eminimee]

Hey Norton....found a pic of your hog....

[NAV]

Okay...time frame is important ....I agree then....when I say "top" ....it's a top of a wave 1 of a big ED....I think we get at least 1475 for bottom of 2.

PS..that's if I haven't mentioned it before..lol

1475 is possible. That's something i call a ST move. But for such a move to happen, we need to build divergences on the daily momentum oscilaltors, and there is none at this point. At a minimum we need to make higher highs on SPX with a negative divergence for that kind of a move to happen. Barring that any VST reaction will be bought aggresively by the techinical traders IMO.