4 replies to this topic

[spielchekr]

http://www.sonic.net...el/top/0803.pdf

That link was posted 1-1/2 years ago here on the TT board (http://www.traders-t...?...st&p=196039).

One excerpt from Paul Desmond's article:

In searching for a way to describe this phenomenon

of market deterioration – the gradual process of hundreds

of individual stocks rolling over into their own bear markets, one by

one, over a period of many months – the picture of a feather

emerged. We think that image is just about right.

I didn't see it happening then, and it didn't happen then, but I'm not so dismissive of it this time around. Time to take a fresh look?

Notice how high the broad-market $NYA price is above its 200ma relative to the number of its issues participating above their 200ma (it's been clinging to 50% for dear life). Now consider that the $NYA200R has always been at or above 55% when the $NYA 200ma penetrated its 1st deviation band, until this time that is. In other words, wouldn't you think we'd be anywhere above that dashed green line by now? Just as important, the equal weight ratio hasn't even looked upward yet.

This is beginning to look threatening to me. I'm looking for confirmations to bail from my long positions if this doesn't improve very, very soon.

O & O.

[NAV]

speichkr, Nice chart. It either means we are coming out of a deep hole or we are in the later stages of a bull market. Since it's not clear which one, following the price trend seems much easier, with appropriate stops.

[spielchekr]

Yeah, I'm having to think with both lobes about this one. Thanks for the addaboy, but learn to spell my name right, ok?

speichkr,

Nice chart. It either means we are coming out of a deep hole or we are in the later stages of a bull market. Since it's not clear which one, following the price trend seems much easier, with appropriate stops.

[NAV]

Thanks for the addaboy, but learn to spell my name right, ok?

LOL, next time i will try to use a Speil checker, before i post.

[spielchekr]

Yes, I'm very sensitive about the spellng. Anyways, I ranted about this chart before... http://www.traders-t...?...st&p=315868. I think Bomb Bay Ben was too eager to put his thesis to work. The result was to leave the weak, injured and defensless behind. You shouldn't compress the healing time, IMO. I still maintain that the market should have and could have taken care of itself, perhaps with a smaller nudge from the Fed at the right time (what's so wrong about a solid, retested double bottom?). Oh well, now let's see how Newthink works.