Kisa said the sentiment was frothy. Market went up 26 SPX points in the last 3 days. Not a single post celebrating it. We go down 6 points and look at all the posts. Shocking volume, wave 3 has started, VIX is skyrocketing. All this while the hourly trend is still up. Now that's the true sentiment.
Simply amazing ! No wonder the market refuses to break down and give decent entry point for bulls. Now i need to find a good spot to reinstate my long position on Monday. Help me with a selloff !
Sentiment backdrop
Started by
NAV
, Sep 28 2007 03:01 PM
15 replies to this topic
#2
Tor
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Posted 28 September 2007 - 03:04 PM
Kisa said the sentiment was frothy. Market went up 26 SPX points in the last 3 days. Not a single post celebrating it. We go down 6 points and look at all the posts. Shocking volume, wave 3 has started, VIX is skyrocketing. All this while the hourly trend is still up. Now that's the true sentiment.
Simply amazing ! No wonder the market refuses to break down and give decent entry point for bulls. Now i need to find a good spot to reinstate my long position on Monday. Help me with a selloff !
My personal view is that this market will only be able to go up if the dollar goes down. Iknow people dont look at multi assets, as the correlations are not reliable, but that is my personal view, maybe right or wrong, at this juncture.
Observer
The future is 90% present and 10% vision.
The future is 90% present and 10% vision.
#3
denleo
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Posted 28 September 2007 - 03:05 PM
Also look at OEX Put / Call ratios (short-term implications) and Commitment of Traders (long-term implications). It is not easy to justify a bearish case.
Denleo
#4
Tor
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Posted 28 September 2007 - 03:12 PM
Also look at OEX Put / Call ratios (short-term implications) and Commitment of Traders (long-term implications). It is not easy to justify a bearish case.
Denleo
the cot's are reducing long exposure having accumulated at the bottom. i agree not look like the kind of things tops are made of.
Observer
The future is 90% present and 10% vision.
The future is 90% present and 10% vision.
#5
arbman
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Posted 28 September 2007 - 03:13 PM
NAV, I am not bearish, but I just think that despite all of the bullish divergences, the market was not able to rally much but mostly retrace toward the last week's highs and people were loading up on the equity calls until this morning...
Summer of 2004 was similar in the liquidity picture, the only difference now is the Fed is easing and the USD tanking and repricing the USD based assets, but there is perhaps not much liquidity heading to the markets, yet...
I will buy, but I am really exhausted and I can buy most of the stuff back in less than 10 minutes on Monday, especially if it gives another gap down that doesn't follow through...
Hopefully it will not gap up.
Have a great weekend...
- kisa
#6
skyymaster
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Posted 28 September 2007 - 03:15 PM
Nav, I am Bearish......................The Dollar if that helps your long on Monday 
People should not be afraid of their governments. Governments should be afraid of their people.
Remember this day, men, for it will be yours for all time.
Remember this day, men, for it will be yours for all time.
#7
Gary Smith
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Posted 28 September 2007 - 03:16 PM
Also look at OEX Put / Call ratios (short-term implications) and Commitment of Traders (long-term implications). It is not easy to justify a bearish case.
Denleo
You may be seeing some posts this weekend about the *massive*, absolutely massive, bullish changes in the large S&P futures contract in this week's COT. Then again, the bears will point out the bearish shift in the smaller contract.
#8
SemiBizz
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Volume Dynamics Specialist
Posted 28 September 2007 - 03:25 PM
I guess you bulls will just have to keep working on convincing yourselves this is all for real...
Come on boyz... why worry about it?
Where's that bullish smugness?
REPEAT AFTER ME:
The economy is GOOD.
There is NO INFLATION.
There will be NO RECESSION.
Price and Volume Forensics Specialist
Richard Wyckoff - "Whenever you find hope or fear warping judgment, close out your position"
Volume is the only vote that matters... the ultimate sentiment poll.
http://twitter.com/VolumeDynamics http://parler.com/Volumedynamics
Richard Wyckoff - "Whenever you find hope or fear warping judgment, close out your position"
Volume is the only vote that matters... the ultimate sentiment poll.
http://twitter.com/VolumeDynamics http://parler.com/Volumedynamics
#9
eminimee
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I don't care who's fur is flying...
Posted 28 September 2007 - 03:46 PM
I guess I sold a few to these dummy's... 
#10
Doug
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Posted 28 September 2007 - 04:05 PM
Kisa said the sentiment was frothy. Market went up 26 SPX points in the last 3 days. Not a single post celebrating it. We go down 6 points and look at all the posts. Shocking volume, wave 3 has started, VIX is skyrocketing. All this while the hourly trend is still up. Now that's the true sentiment.
Simply amazing ! No wonder the market refuses to break down and give decent entry point for bulls. Now i need to find a good spot to reinstate my long position on Monday. Help me with a selloff !
Actually, the SPX is in a downward trend over the last 7 days in the two-hour chart. And while you are correct that it was up 26 points over the previous three days, it still did not get to its high of last week and closed lower on the week this week. Not necessarily bearish but not a raging bull by any means.
Regards,
