11 replies to this topic

[spielchekr]

It's inevitable.



There have been a couple of others in the past decade.

Here's yer 2002:



And here's yer 1998:



Take yer pick.

[Trend-Signals]

1998




Market is reflecting the 1998 price pattern formation. After the strong move on 9/18, markets were consolidating - SPX, DOW, and Nasdaq, while Qs trending up.

The consolidating volumes suggest that bears are fully short and bulls are waiting for a confirmation.

While DOW p/c and SPX p/c are showing bearish note, Equity p/c is continuing to be positive; therefore, need to be cautious.

A breakout from SPX 1555, after 8 trading day consolidation, will make strong moves to upside fueled by full short positions.



http://www.stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$INDU&p=D&st=1998-07-01&en=1999-01-31&i=p31595672082&a=96178216&r=279.png
http://www.stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$INDU&p=D&yr=0&mn=5&dy=0&i=p54891065640&a=117483238&r=534.png
http://www.stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=D&st=1998-07-01&en=1999-01-31&i=p47380608279&a=117481743&r=395.png
http://www.stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=5&dy=0&i=p99701641840&a=117483454&r=716.png

http://investorshub....age_id=23236539

Markets are approaching to breakout zone, SPX 1555, DOW 14015, and Nasdaq 2725.

Because we now have overbought daily price actions, I revisited the 1998 price action pattern.

The price pattern looks similar as we can see on the MACD actions that price has advanced even with divergences.

However, it is better to be prepared for either a breakout or 2-3 weeks pull back from the SPX 1555 resistance.


9/27/07

http://investorshub....age_id=23204977


We now have $TRAN cooperating with DOW as we can see on $TRAN chart. Markets are, so far, reflecting 1998 scenario.

http://investorshub....age_id=23100608


Price actions will likely reflect "1998 scenario" after the Fed rate cut on 10/15/1998 as the market continued traded up.

I commented on 1997-1998 scenario since 8/16/2007 Climactic reversal as alerted that VIX traded to 1997 level suggesting that we will likely see 1997 scenario.

As noted earlier, my view is not just based on the VIX level, but also based on the other market analysis which I have noted such as LT view, Breadth analysis and market sentimet.

Based on the further analysis, it suggests that we will likely see "1998 Scenaro" after the Fed rate cut.

As noted earlier, price action during the next week will be pivotal.


http://investorshub....age_id=22365390

[Caduceus]

TS,

Thanks for the great charts, I agree.

Aug 18th
http://www.traders-t...?...st&p=309455

[spielchekr]

If so, this is not 1998 because you would have to shift the price chart back three months to align with the breadth chart to get the redux scenario you're looking for.

[Trend-Signals]

TS,

Thanks for the great charts, I agree.

Aug 18th
http://www.traders-t...?...st&p=309455

Hi Caduceus,


We were on the bull side as I recall. Commented on coming 8/16 reversal as it was likely and markets have confirmed.


Now, overloaded fully shorts, will see but a breakout will likely cause some firework with short squeeze.

Good luck with trades

[Trend-Signals]

If so, this is not 1998 because you would have to shift the price chart back three months to align with the breadth chart to get the redux scenario you're looking for.

Will see, market will not duplicate millions of minute details of a scenario under any fractal formation.
You need to, I do, consider market analysis in whole, not in narrowed, exact fit....

[spielchekr]

If so, this is not 1998 because you would have to shift the price chart back three months to align with the breadth chart to get the redux scenario you're looking for.

Will see, market will not duplicate millions of minute details of a scenario under any fractal formation.
You need to, I do, consider market analysis in whole, not in narrowed, exact fit....

As long as you've wandered in here to trash my look at breadth as being narrow market analysis, please do tell how your particular exclusionism makes yours whole. You could start with explaining how breadth is just millions of minute details having no bearing on a price fractal.

And let's see if you can do it without once again plugging how you monopolized THE CALL for the August 16th/17th bottom. There were others (including me), if you care to search it. The bottom is now old news, in case you didn't know.

Edited by spielchekr, 29 September 2007 - 10:05 AM.

[underabigw]

Spielchekr, I appreciate your work. I'm sorry we have some more negative stuff going on. I do have a legitimate but basic question. I hate to be dense, but I really want to understand where we are in time relating to your 2002 and 1998 charts compared to now. I assume your death cross means we have more downside ahead of us but I am having trouble seeing where we are currently based on your charts. I am also interested in your "death cross" work on the Transports as well. Please keep us updated on that work when you see something significant. I also find it interesting that the Utilities broke down on Friday which had a severe negative impact on their relative strength to the Industrials. Since the Utilities led the market up, along with the Transports, I'm wondering if the market might see some ST problems ahead. Thanks again for your excellent and thoughtful work. UBW

[mss]

Lets keep it very civil in market analysis. Just because we might have different ways of viewing data and coming to different or the same conclusion does not require uncivil responce with a different opinion. Treat all opinions and thoughts with respect. We do not all think alike. Thanks, mss

[dcengr]

Lets keep it very civil in market analysis. Just because we might have different ways of viewing data and coming to different or the same conclusion does not require uncivil responce with a different opinion.
Treat all opinions and thoughts with respect. We do not all think alike.
Thanks,
mss

At least they both agree the year seems to fit 1998