2 replies to this topic

[Trend-Signals]

$SPX:$VIX ratio formation is also suggesting "1998" price formation. As we can see that it has shown similar formation as Oct 1998 when the ratio traded to below the prior IT low shown in yellow highlight on the chart.

The Aug 1998 peak was the support area as we can see that it has reversed at the support when market reversed on 8/16/07.

This is additional observation to the comments shown below. Also, I would like to make a point that my bull side stance with market analysis with TA/charts is cumulative as follow-up comments. These market thoughts are started since Jun-Jul 2006 bottom call with LT cycle view.

Good luck




ps: I haven't shown this setup for years since I didn't find a reason to use to support my view before. I have seen a post which is rather amusing as I have literally 1000s of setup charts on stockcharts.com where they can tell you, if they have backup copies going back years.
Also have shown 100s of charts while I was on the SC public list.


http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX:$VIX&p=M&st=1990-01-01&i=p77015091562&a=62867883&r=354.png


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Market is reflecting the 1998 price pattern formation. After the strong move on 9/18, markets were consolidating - SPX, DOW, and Nasdaq, while Qs trending up.

The consolidating volumes suggest that bears are fully short and bulls are waiting for a confirmation.

While DOW p/c and SPX p/c are showing bearish note, Equity p/c is continuing to be positive; therefore, need to be cautious.

A breakout from SPX 1555, after 8 trading day consolidation, will make strong moves to upside fueled by full short positions.



http://www.stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$INDU&p=D&st=1998-07-01&en=1999-01-31&i=p31595672082&a=96178216&r=279.png
http://www.stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$INDU&p=D&yr=0&mn=5&dy=0&i=p54891065640&a=117483238&r=534.png
http://www.stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=D&st=1998-07-01&en=1999-01-31&i=p47380608279&a=117481743&r=395.png
http://www.stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=5&dy=0&i=p99701641840&a=117483454&r=716.png

http://www.stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$TRAN&p=W&st=1995-01-01&i=p61522042335&a=117481949&r=623.png

http://www.stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$TRAN:$INDU&p=W&st=1980-10-09&i=p64687489082&a=84527620&r=327.png

[Trend-Signals]

COT tells me that large speculators are consistently short. I will not spill my guts out, but I see it interesting.... also see what commercials are doing but will not show all my cards which are speculation of what speculators are doing.

[Trend-Signals]

Revise: All right, on 1998 formation, will be looking for a confirmation......... on this uptrend.