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A Fractal Warning <<<


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#1 Frac_Man

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Posted 30 September 2007 - 10:30 AM

Posted Image



Thus far the recent 3 week SPX rally appears to be ending at F5 ( view the below chart ).

This copy iteration has "strictly adhered" to the base fractal criteria:

"Time, Dimension and its Fractal Node Set."


At this point there is a "very strong probablility" that a New F6 target will be meet in the coming weeks.

Again fractals only need to be similar and NOT exact.

Let's see what happens ... this week

#2 nicolasillo

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Posted 30 September 2007 - 12:27 PM

thanks for sharing this.

#3 Frac_Man

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Posted 30 September 2007 - 01:57 PM

It all matches <<




In 3 trading days, on Wednesday, October 3, the market will face the worst 5 week period in the decennial pattern. It is a vicious decline with nary a rally day in it and although I can't give you a reason why, I can tell you the consistency of the pattern is nothing short of remarkable. Without going into too much detail, this is how we began our update to subscribers yesterday:


Stockmarket Cycles update for Friday, September 28th

The calendar is fast approaching October 3rd of the seventh year within the decade. Let's be more specific because there are some people who count the years of the decade beginning with zero. We are fast approaching October 3rd in a year ending in the digit 7. Suffice it to say that the average decline between October 3rd and November 8th of years ending in the digit 7 since 1897 is 14.2% on a closing basis. What a remarkable statistic! Of the 11 previous years ending in the digit 7, there was only one year that saw an advance between those two dates and the advance was a tepid 1.7% in 1947. The declines between those two dates have been -13.2%, -16.2%, -17.9%, -3.9%, -19.5%, -6.6%, -7.8%, -3.6%, -25.8%, and -5.6%. We don't know what else to tell you about those remarkable data.

We emphasize again that, although such statistics suggest it is a perfect time for a strongly bearish speculative strategy, one should never speculate with funds that one cannot afford to lose.

If you are not nifty with numbers, a 14.2% monthly decline represents an annualized rate of around negative 84.2%.

Peter Eliades
Stockmarket Cycles






















thanks for sharing this.



#4 SimpleTone

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Posted 30 September 2007 - 03:27 PM

Permabear Comes Out Roaring
Ben Berentson, >>>>>04.10.03<<<<<, 2:24 PM ET

NEW YORK - Peter Eliades has some choice words for investors expecting a big postwar market rally: "I would be amazed if we didn't see the Dow at 5,500 to 6,500 sometime this year."


http://www.forbes.co...1...o&referrer=


Perhaps you and Pete will be right this time.

#5 Frac_Man

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Posted 30 September 2007 - 04:23 PM

I sure hope so !

His analysis is linear and mine non-linear ...














Permabear Comes Out Roaring
Ben Berentson, >>>>>04.10.03<<<<<, 2:24 PM ET

NEW YORK - Peter Eliades has some choice words for investors expecting a big postwar market rally: "I would be amazed if we didn't see the Dow at 5,500 to 6,500 sometime this year."


http://www.forbes.co...1...o&referrer=


Perhaps you and Pete will be right this time.



#6 toni

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Posted 30 September 2007 - 05:36 PM

frac man, Is their any economic reason why this happened on those dates? It seems to me that there have not been enough times to rule out a random result. If so it means nothing without some reason for its happening. toni

#7 Frac_Man

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Posted 30 September 2007 - 07:01 PM

The world is random and so is the stock market !

But, the changes about to occur can be seen through a fractal.

The markets are simply one huge fractal chain .........................

There is No reason for its happening ............... we all know that through history

In a dynamic system ( i.e. markets ) there is no Cause and Effect <<<<<


Things just happen ............... for example a heart attack <<< no one can predict it

However >>>>>>>>>>>>> the signs appear >>>>>>>>>>>> pain, tightness etc ......

Life in general is a dynamic system with forces entering at random and changing the outcome <<<<

Hope this helps you


Hank














frac man,

Is their any economic reason why this happened on those dates? It seems to me that there have not been enough times to rule out a random result. If so it means nothing without some reason for its happening.

toni



#8 toni

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Posted 30 September 2007 - 07:09 PM

Hank, Thanks. Not sure I understand, but you may well be right about the world being ramdom. Unexpected things do just seem to happen. toni

#9 maineman

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Posted 30 September 2007 - 07:29 PM

Frac, So I gather you are short. If so, what vehicle are you short? And from what level? Thanks. mm
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#10 Frac_Man

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Posted 30 September 2007 - 07:34 PM

No I am not perfect <<<< I admit that ... Hank





From Dr. Dorn :

Why are so many traders trying to turn a game of probability into one of 100% certainty?

The answer lies in one of the cardinal sins of trading which is PERFECTIONISM.

Perfectionism can be a great help to people in many professions, but can be fatal to a trader. Perfectionists, always trying to find the “Holy Grail” of trading, go from one service to another, from one system to another, looking for a way that they can be right all the time. They think, “YES! Now, I’ve found it! It’s this trading room, or this service, or this indicator! Wait... something is wrong here. Not all of these trades are working, and I have draw- downs! How can it be that this particular method failed and I actually had to take a loss? Must be something wrong. I will try harder and look for an even better system, a more expensive service, a new and improved guru, some absolutely no-fail software so that I can have ONLY WINNING TRADES.”

This is perfectionism in action. Not only does this type of irrational behavior and belief undermine and demoralize a trader, but it takes away all the enjoyment and fun of being in the markets. It leads to depression, with depletion of psychic and physical energy, and leaves the perfectionist to confront his/her basic and overriding fear: fear of failure. In the extreme, it leads to physical and mental illness, including addiction to prescription drugs, alcohol, or illegal substances as well as other addictions. The pain of failure or the haunting fear of failure is simply overwhelming, and one turns to whatever works to “medicate” the pain.

I want to share something of my personal history with you, as I believe that many of you can identify with me, and learn from some part of this story. (And if you do, please let me hear from you.)

My parents were seriously ill from the time that I was born. I truly believed that if I were absolutely “perfect,” scored the highest in school, did the best at music and dancing and elocution and debating that I could make them better. So I did that. I had no life outside of study and learning. I was the “perfect little daughter” and even became the “perfect little doctor” for my sick parents, even though I was only 13. Shortly after this, while I was still in my teens, both of my parents died. I was not “good enough” or “perfect enough” to make them better. So, I tried even harder and studied more and more, to the complete exclusion of any personal or social life whatsoever. This time, I was going to be “perfect” for my dead parents, to show them how wonderful I really was and how much they should be proud of me. This reached absolute culmination when, after receiving two doctorate degrees, I still had to continue with more and more exams and more and more training. Can you imagine anything so ridiculous? Even after my parents died, I was still trying to get their approval by showing them how brilliant and talented I was.

Many years later, I suddenly became critically ill, stopped breathing and lapsed into a lengthy coma. This was the culmination of years and years of unrealistic internal demands that I set on myself and which were manifested as addiction to perfection. It was only when I awakened from coma that I started on a new road and a new path. I was not superwoman; never was and never could be. Yes, I would continue to work hard and to achieve, but I could never be “perfect.” I am not and you are not. So, when I tell you to "Get over yourself" I mean that I had to get over myself. I had to address the demons of perfectionism and move past them. I accepted that I am a flawed human being, and acknowledged that I have certain real and wonderful strengths. I chose to concentrate on the strengths, and stop beating myself up for the weaknesses.
Life can be lived forwards, but can only be understood backwards... Soren Kierkegaard















Permabear Comes Out Roaring
Ben Berentson, >>>>>04.10.03<<<<<, 2:24 PM ET

NEW YORK - Peter Eliades has some choice words for investors expecting a big postwar market rally: "I would be amazed if we didn't see the Dow at 5,500 to 6,500 sometime this year."


http://www.forbes.co...1...o&referrer=


Perhaps you and Pete will be right this time.




The SPX <<<<< is the clearest for a short with a Stop at the recent weekly highs ...... ( daily chart )





Frac,
So I gather you are short. If so, what vehicle are you short? And from what level? Thanks.


mm