19 replies to this topic

[underabigw]

Hank, Thanks for continuing to post and keep us informed on what you see. I always look forward to reading your posts. Thanks again for sharing your work. UBW

[milbank]

I read but, don't post much. I get a lot of good perspectives from this site even if I don't ultimately agree with all I read. I certainly wouldn't be so low as to make a snide post to someone who is out there doing the heavy lifting whether I agree with them or not because I don't do the heavy lifting on this site. I looked under simpletone's bio and found "no information", "no information", "no information". Most who only post to lay down something snide, are full of "no information" themselves. Anyone can make a snide remark. I can do it too. Like this... It seems simpletone has one too many "e"s in his moniker. No great skill in that is there?

[maineman]

Looking at the SPX the recent highs have been in the 30 - 40 zone. You are short from somewhere in there? When did you get short? Are you short the SPY or SP futures or are you long puts? How will you determine when to take your profit? Is the fractal based on time or price? Thanks in advance for your teaching. mm

[milbank]

It all matches <<




In 3 trading days, on Wednesday, October 3, the market will face the worst 5 week period in the decennial pattern. It is a vicious decline with nary a rally day in it and although I can't give you a reason why, I can tell you the consistency of the pattern is nothing short of remarkable. Without going into too much detail, this is how we began our update to subscribers yesterday:


Stockmarket Cycles update for Friday, September 28th

The calendar is fast approaching October 3rd of the seventh year within the decade. Let's be more specific because there are some people who count the years of the decade beginning with zero. We are fast approaching October 3rd in a year ending in the digit 7. Suffice it to say that the average decline between October 3rd and November 8th of years ending in the digit 7 since 1897 is 14.2% on a closing basis. What a remarkable statistic! Of the 11 previous years ending in the digit 7, there was only one year that saw an advance between those two dates and the advance was a tepid 1.7% in 1947. The declines between those two dates have been -13.2%, -16.2%, -17.9%, -3.9%, -19.5%, -6.6%, -7.8%, -3.6%, -25.8%, and -5.6%. We don't know what else to tell you about those remarkable data.

We emphasize again that, although such statistics suggest it is a perfect time for a strongly bearish speculative strategy, one should never speculate with funds that one cannot afford to lose.

If you are not nifty with numbers, a 14.2% monthly decline represents an annualized rate of around negative 84.2%.

Peter Eliades
Stockmarket Cycles

thanks for sharing this.

Very interesting...actually, incredible...stats Hank. I too appreciate your posting them. When you deal in anything that deals in cycles, from the natural to the unnatural, one tends to see parallels and fractals. Whether the near future follows the majority of Octobers past in years that end with a "7" we, of course, do not yet know but...

One's got to respect the odds.

[Frac_Man]

Many traders know that you only need to be 60 % right and then the 40 % wrong you accept <<

If you focus on the 40 % you may end up getting 100 % unprofitable trades

Look at what works <<<< and not what does not work .....

Looking at the SPX the recent highs have been in the 30 - 40 zone. You are short from somewhere in there? When did you get short? Are you short the SPY or SP futures or are you long puts?
How will you determine when to take your profit? Is the fractal based on time or price?

Thanks in advance for your teaching.

mm

[SimpleTone]

Actually, it was a rather snide post, and I apologize, Frac Man. I have no way of gauging your work objectively, but I like others appreciate your sharing. It was more a reaction to the other guru on my part. His perma-bearishness has cost people a lot of money. You may very well be correct about the decline, and the statistics are in your favor. A decline/ bottom in october/november is certainly something that happens frequently. Good luck on the trade.

[linrom1]

Permabear Comes Out Roaring
Ben Berentson, >>>>>04.10.03<<<<<, 2:24 PM ET

NEW YORK - Peter Eliades has some choice words for investors expecting a big postwar market rally: "I would be amazed if we didn't see the Dow at 5,500 to 6,500 sometime this year."


http://www.forbes.co...1...o&referrer=


Perhaps you and Pete will be right this time.

The first indicator is what Eliades calls the CI/CNI ratio. It is a ratio used to highlight periods of extreme buying or selling on the NYSE--to tell you whether the market is overbought or oversold. It uses the nine-month daily average of advancing stocks over the sum of the nine-month daily averages of advancing and declining stocks on the NYSE divided by two.

According to Eliades, there hasn't been an important market bottom at which the ratio wasn't .975 or lower. The highest it's been during a major market bottom, he says, is around a .95 or a .94. The ratio at the October bottom, when the Dow dropped to 7,177, was .981.

Eliades says, "There's no way on God's green earth that qualifies as a market bottom. You have to remake market history to say that qualifies."

The ratio today? Not even close. It's an even 1.00.

When this ratio =1, it just means that adv issues =declining issues. What am I missing?


(∑adv)/(∑(adv+dec)/2) =1 ; (2*∑adv)/(∑adv+dec)) =1 ; 2*∑adv= ∑(adv+dec) ; ∑adv= ∑dec

Edited by linrom1, 30 September 2007 - 10:34 PM.

[blitz99]

No I am not perfect <<<< I admit that ... Hank





From Dr. Dorn :

Why are so many traders trying to turn a game of probability into one of 100% certainty?

The answer lies in one of the cardinal sins of trading which is PERFECTIONISM.

Perfectionism can be a great help to people in many professions, but can be fatal to a trader. Perfectionists, always trying to find the “Holy Grail” of trading, go from one service to another, from one system to another, looking for a way that they can be right all the time. They think, “YES! Now, I’ve found it! It’s this trading room, or this service, or this indicator! Wait... something is wrong here. Not all of these trades are working, and I have draw- downs! How can it be that this particular method failed and I actually had to take a loss? Must be something wrong. I will try harder and look for an even better system, a more expensive service, a new and improved guru, some absolutely no-fail software so that I can have ONLY WINNING TRADES.”

This is perfectionism in action. Not only does this type of irrational behavior and belief undermine and demoralize a trader, but it takes away all the enjoyment and fun of being in the markets. It leads to depression, with depletion of psychic and physical energy, and leaves the perfectionist to confront his/her basic and overriding fear: fear of failure. In the extreme, it leads to physical and mental illness, including addiction to prescription drugs, alcohol, or illegal substances as well as other addictions. The pain of failure or the haunting fear of failure is simply overwhelming, and one turns to whatever works to “medicate” the pain.

I want to share something of my personal history with you, as I believe that many of you can identify with me, and learn from some part of this story. (And if you do, please let me hear from you.)

My parents were seriously ill from the time that I was born. I truly believed that if I were absolutely “perfect,” scored the highest in school, did the best at music and dancing and elocution and debating that I could make them better. So I did that. I had no life outside of study and learning. I was the “perfect little daughter” and even became the “perfect little doctor” for my sick parents, even though I was only 13. Shortly after this, while I was still in my teens, both of my parents died. I was not “good enough” or “perfect enough” to make them better. So, I tried even harder and studied more and more, to the complete exclusion of any personal or social life whatsoever. This time, I was going to be “perfect” for my dead parents, to show them how wonderful I really was and how much they should be proud of me. This reached absolute culmination when, after receiving two doctorate degrees, I still had to continue with more and more exams and more and more training. Can you imagine anything so ridiculous? Even after my parents died, I was still trying to get their approval by showing them how brilliant and talented I was.

Many years later, I suddenly became critically ill, stopped breathing and lapsed into a lengthy coma. This was the culmination of years and years of unrealistic internal demands that I set on myself and which were manifested as addiction to perfection. It was only when I awakened from coma that I started on a new road and a new path. I was not superwoman; never was and never could be. Yes, I would continue to work hard and to achieve, but I could never be “perfect.” I am not and you are not. So, when I tell you to "Get over yourself" I mean that I had to get over myself. I had to address the demons of perfectionism and move past them. I accepted that I am a flawed human being, and acknowledged that I have certain real and wonderful strengths. I chose to concentrate on the strengths, and stop beating myself up for the weaknesses.
Life can be lived forwards, but can only be understood backwards... Soren Kierkegaard

Permabear Comes Out Roaring
Ben Berentson, >>>>>04.10.03<<<<<, 2:24 PM ET

NEW YORK - Peter Eliades has some choice words for investors expecting a big postwar market rally: "I would be amazed if we didn't see the Dow at 5,500 to 6,500 sometime this year."


http://www.forbes.co...1...o&referrer=


Perhaps you and Pete will be right this time.

The SPX <<<<< is the clearest for a short with a Stop at the recent weekly highs ...... ( daily chart )

Frac,
So I gather you are short. If so, what vehicle are you short? And from what level? Thanks.


mm

The 12 month 8 month and 3 month cycle lows are all converging at the end of october into early november. The bull phase of the 3 month cycle is near its endhttp://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$INDU&p=60&st=2006-09-01&en=2007-12-20&id=p23027401446&a=105318931&listNum=33.

[OEXCHAOS]

Why are so many traders trying to turn a game of probability into one of 100% certainty?

The answer lies in one of the cardinal sins of trading which is PERFECTIONISM.

Perfectionism can be a great help to people in many professions, but can be fatal to a trader. Perfectionists, always trying to find the “Holy Grail” of trading, go from one service to another, from one system to another, looking for a way that they can be right all the time. They think, “YES! Now, I’ve found it! It’s this trading room, or this service, or this indicator! Wait... something is wrong here. Not all of these trades are working, and I have draw- downs! How can it be that this particular method failed and I actually had to take a loss? Must be something wrong. I will try harder and look for an even better system, a more expensive service, a new and improved guru, some absolutely no-fail software so that I can have ONLY WINNING TRADES.”

Very true stuff. I've written about it before. This kills a ton of otherwise great traders.

Good enough is, in fact, good enough.

Mark

[Frac_Man]

No problem ...................................

Actually, it was a rather snide post, and I apologize, Frac Man. I have no way of gauging your work objectively, but I like others appreciate your sharing. It was more a reaction to the other guru on my part. His perma-bearishness has cost people a lot of money. You may very well be correct about the decline, and the statistics are in your favor.

A decline/ bottom in october/november is certainly something that happens frequently. Good luck on the trade.