18 replies to this topic

[linrom1]

A-ha, Some time ago you said, I think on your blog, that falling dollar will not benefit big caps this time around. Do you remember, your reasoning behind that statement?

[danzman]

A top? Maybe. THE top...I doubt it.

IT

not the top but tradable top... imo, THE top (for a 15%-20% plunge or a cyclical bear market) is not far away either...

i do not want to jix by giving the number now but i strongly expect a %20 correction off the next swing top which I think is not far away from where we are today

We had a correction. That was the time to buy. It's common knowledge that a recession is coming...funny how the market doesn't agree. Still long since June 2006. No IT sell signal at this time.



D

[A-ha]

Selling in dollar after a major breakdown attracts more selling because its not mexican pezo...
That flares up inflation which is already depressing middle and lower class as shown by several retailers...
todays rally was based on more rate cut speculation after what has come out of banks... i think if they cut, it will harm this country more than a possible damage done by WW3... no baseless speculation lasts long enough to alter trends... the market will come to the norm soon

now let me ask you a simple question... if retailers like best buy keep moaning like they have been and if the consumer spending consistently drops like it has been, would you buy intel stock just because dollar is cratering due to miserable monetary policy to rescue a few f&^% up banks and intel happens to be a global chip company ... do you really think the drop in dollar will increase sales good enough to compansate screwed margins due to the inflation?

if you were a foreign investor , dont you panic if dolar sells off so fast so soon... wont you consider to sell your assets to put the money in something else


this chart shows the real value of their assets

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX...id=p81404169353


on the long term chart of spx/gold ratio, there are important support and resistances and i suggest you to watch the level seen before Oct 1987 carefuly ,that is where pandoras box may open ...during the crash of 87, dollar was cratering as fast as anything else

and you know what gold just brokeout big time... big f$%^& time that there is nothing else over the top now
last weeks cot shows commercials short gold as heavy as their long in s&p ... that awfully smells like a hedge to me because gold just keeps going higher regardless their position...

We had a correction. That was the time to buy. It's common knowledge that a recession is coming...funny how the market doesn't agree. Still long since June 2006. No IT sell signal at this time.

D

Yes I was buying with both fists were you


Aug 16 2007... f^*%b loaded big time with a whole bunch of ******** at the lo ticks....see yaa in a few weeks


Aug 16 2007, 01:18 PM

Aug 16 2007, 11:42 AM

Aug 16 2007, 02:32 PM

Edited by A-ha, 01 October 2007 - 04:46 PM.

[A-ha]

Edited by A-ha, 01 October 2007 - 05:03 PM.

[arbman]

I hedged with the MNX puts...

I agree, the implied volatility on Qs was the tell...

This was actually NDX, not MNX...

[iloli way]

shorted NQ starting @ 2132 gradually ...we gonna get a tradable selloff here

A-ha,
Are you having the same conviction with your short today as were in Aug 16 with long?

btw, those Aug 16 calls were very impressive. I just read them the first time. I'd been buying SDS (ultra short spx) since July high, took profits several times, bought again at 56.8, now giving all profits back(13%) thanks to Ben and the gang. I am not capitulated yet, break even so far. Interesting to hear you more.

[A-ha]

shorted NQ starting @ 2132 gradually ...we gonna get a tradable selloff here

A-ha,
Are you having the same conviction with your short today as were in Aug 16 with long?

btw, those Aug 16 calls were very impressive. I just read them the first time. I'd been buying SDS (ultra short spx) since July high, took profits several times, bought again at 56.8, now giving all profits back(13%) thanks to Ben and the gang. I am not capitulated yet, break even so far. Interesting to hear you more.

I am expecting a corrective sell off here... like 50 to 100 NDX points off todays top 2120

I have a higher target for THE top however....

[danzman]

Selling in dollar after a major breakdown attracts more selling because its not mexican pezo...
That flares up inflation which is already depressing middle and lower class as shown by several retailers...
todays rally was based on more rate cut speculation after what has come out of banks... i think if they cut, it will harm this country more than a possible damage done by WW3... no baseless speculation lasts long enough to alter trends... the market will come to the norm soon

now let me ask you a simple question... if retailers like best buy keep moaning like they have been and if the consumer spending consistently drops like it has been, would you buy intel stock just because dollar is cratering due to miserable monetary policy to rescue a few f&^% up banks and intel happens to be a global chip company ... do you really think the drop in dollar will increase sales good enough to compansate screwed margins due to the inflation?

if you were a foreign investor , dont you panic if dolar sells off so fast so soon... wont you consider to sell your assets to put the money in something else


this chart shows the real value of their assets

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX...id=p81404169353


on the long term chart of spx/gold ratio, there are important support and resistances and i suggest you to watch the level seen before Oct 1987 carefuly ,that is where pandoras box may open ...during the crash of 87, dollar was cratering as fast as anything else

and you know what gold just brokeout big time... big f$%^& time that there is nothing else over the top now
last weeks cot shows commercials short gold as heavy as their long in s&p ... that awfully smells like a hedge to me because gold just keeps going higher regardless their position...

We had a correction. That was the time to buy. It's common knowledge that a recession is coming...funny how the market doesn't agree. Still long since June 2006. No IT sell signal at this time.

D

Yes I was buying with both fists were you


Aug 16 2007... f^*%b loaded big time with a whole bunch of ******** at the lo ticks....see yaa in a few weeks


Aug 16 2007, 01:18 PM

Aug 16 2007, 11:42 AM

Aug 16 2007, 02:32 PM

Buying with both fists? No, just with my finger. CLICK CLICK



D

[iloli way]

I am expecting a corrective sell off here... like 50 to 100 NDX points off todays top 2120 I have a higher target for THE top however.... [/quote] Okay. Thanks!