15 replies to this topic

[pdx5]

Bob-C, thanks for posting those charts and info. Best to you. Rob

[Bob-C]

Bob-C, thanks for posting those charts and info.

Best to you.

Rob

Hi Rob, good to hear from you, thanks very much for your comments! Good luck on your trades. I hope that you'll find the following charts useful and informative:

Here is the PHM three-month-daily linear regression chart:
http://www.prophet.n...02826584172.png

Here is the PHM six-month-daily linear regression chart:
http://www.prophet.n...02826584172.png

Here is the PHM one-year-daily linear regression chart:
http://www.prophet.n...02826584172.png

Here is the PHM one-year-weekly linear regression chart:
http://www.prophet.n...02826584172.png



Here is the KBH three-month-daily linear regression chart:
http://www.prophet.n...02826584172.png

Here is the KBH six-month-daily linear regression chart:
http://www.prophet.n...02826584172.png

Here is the KBH one-year-daily linear regression chart:
http://www.prophet.n...02826584172.png

Here is the KBH one-year-weekly linear regression chart:
http://www.prophet.n...02826584172.png

Cheers,

Bob-C

Edited by Bob-C, 02 October 2007 - 10:55 PM.

[OEXCHAOS]

My read is that the fundamentals of the homebuilders still suck for many. They typically build until the money runs out, not until they see softening of demand. We know that the housing cycle is a big, slow one, too. As an INVESTMENT, I'd not be messing with these guys yet. There are too many land mines and buried bodies on some of those balance sheets, I'll wager. BUT, you'd have to be an idiot to not know about the troubles. Every body and their brother is already short or has already sold, if they were remotely inclined to. So, toss out a hint of good news (not even good reality, just a hint of good news) and you're going to see a ton of bottom picking contrarians, amateur/early value players, and shorts buying in these stocks. Who is going to sell to them? Who's left? You could see 30%-50% rallies in these stocks easily. You'll probably see lower prices too, but there's serious upside risk in here now. Mark

[Bob-C]

My read is that the fundamentals of the homebuilders still suck for many. They typically build until the money runs out, not until they see softening of demand. We know that the housing cycle is a big, slow one, too.

As an INVESTMENT, I'd not be messing with these guys yet. There are too many land mines and buried bodies on some of those balance sheets, I'll wager.

BUT, you'd have to be an idiot to not know about the troubles. Every body and their brother is already short or has already sold, if they were remotely inclined to.

So, toss out a hint of good news (not even good reality, just a hint of good news) and you're going to see a ton of bottom picking contrarians, amateur/early value players, and shorts buying in these stocks. Who is going to sell to them? Who's left?

You could see 30%-50% rallies in these stocks easily. You'll probably see lower prices too, but there's serious upside risk in here now.

Mark

Hi Mark, thanks very much for your wise advice and insights.

Best,

Bob

[OEXCHAOS]

Just bein' a Dutch Uncle... M

[Bob-C]

Just bein' a Dutch Uncle...



M

Thanks very much Mark. Your thoughtful, caring, and intelligent advice is always appreciated. Keep up your excellent work!

Best,

Bob