Edited by relax_dk, 03 October 2007 - 04:07 AM.
What will be the reaction to friday's job report?
Started by
relax
, Oct 03 2007 04:06 AM
4 replies to this topic
#1
relax
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Posted 03 October 2007 - 04:06 AM
What will be the reaction to friday's job report?
Market will go up?
Market will go down?
No change - less than .2 in either direction
#2
Pabst
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Posted 03 October 2007 - 07:22 AM
It's rare to get 3 consecutive extreme moves in the same direction. Both Aug and Sept were bloodbaths.
Free market's for free men!
#3
Doug
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Posted 03 October 2007 - 07:31 AM
The big report for the week is, of course, the Non-Farm Payrolls on Friday. Estimates are still holding for a gain of +115,000 as though last months -4000 loss never happened. Nearly everybody will be surprised with Friday's number since the unofficial whisper numbers are all over the map from -10,000 to +135,000 jobs. The potential today is for a positive surprise from an August revision. If they do revise sharply higher it would relieve a lot of recession talk in the markets. Assuming the September number is positive it would signal an all clear for the bulls to rally into year-end. It would also remove a lot of incentive for the Fed to cut rates again. I think the market would be fine with that if it thought the economy was not about to fall into a recession.
Regards,
Regards,
#4
relax
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Posted 03 October 2007 - 02:49 PM
Doug a few days ago you wrote:
"This would be the proverbial good news, bad news joke for the markets. Good news, the economy is stronger than we thought. Bad news the two to three additional Fed rate cuts already priced into the market need to be removed. A sharp revision higher in jobs could mean a -300 point haircut for the Dow."
Today you write:
"The potential today is for a positive surprise from an August revision. If they do revise sharply higher it would relieve a lot of recession talk in the markets. [b]Assuming the September number is positive it would signal an all clear for the bulls to rally into year-end. It would also remove a lot of incentive for the Fed to cut rates again. I think the market would be fine with that if it thought the economy was not about to fall into a recession."
Why the change of opinion???
"This would be the proverbial good news, bad news joke for the markets. Good news, the economy is stronger than we thought. Bad news the two to three additional Fed rate cuts already priced into the market need to be removed. A sharp revision higher in jobs could mean a -300 point haircut for the Dow."
Today you write:
"The potential today is for a positive surprise from an August revision. If they do revise sharply higher it would relieve a lot of recession talk in the markets. [b]Assuming the September number is positive it would signal an all clear for the bulls to rally into year-end. It would also remove a lot of incentive for the Fed to cut rates again. I think the market would be fine with that if it thought the economy was not about to fall into a recession."
Why the change of opinion???
#5
arbman
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Posted 03 October 2007 - 04:45 PM
Job report today
It will miss the analysts' estimate of 115000, but it will not be a wide miss, so the market will assume that the inflation is low and the Fed will continue to cut, but the economy is still buoyant and rally...
It will miss the analysts' estimate of 115000, but it will not be a wide miss, so the market will assume that the inflation is low and the Fed will continue to cut, but the economy is still buoyant and rally...
