Posted 08 October 2007 - 11:29 AM
Just some ideas. Check them and see............
Trend & Cycle U.S. MARKET OVERVIEW
Q4 SHAPING UP TO BE HIGHLY ROTATIONAL
Intermediate-term background remains positive. Weekly momentum indicators,
measuring 1-2 quarter shifts, have bottomed for equities. In a, ‘normal environment’,
further upside recovery should develop through Q4. Supporting macro points include 1)
a peak in credit spreads, 2) Intermediate-term lows in 10-year bond yields, 3) Japanese
Yen has peaked intermediate-term reversing a 3-month uptrend and defensive
leadership is peaking in relative performance terms. (P.2)
However, short-term risk remains given:
• Major markets are at resistance levels. (p.2)
• Short-term momentum and TRIN are overbought. (p.3)
• U.S. Dollar is oversold and beginning to bottom short-term. (p.3)
• Leadership in global growth/tech and resource themes is extended and due for
a pullback after a strong run-up into quarter-end. See page 2 for extended charts
in emerging markets (Hong Kong’s Hang Seng) and Resource themes (BHP). (p.3)
• A rotation to oversold Financials and Consumer is developing but short-term
many stocks in these sectors are at resistance near 50- and 75-day mva’s. (p.4)
OUTLOOK
Given the intermediate-term technical backdrop cited above, a pullback is likely to be
damaging near-term but should set the stage for further gains through Q4.
Alternatively, without a pullback, many stocks will be overbought heading into
earnings setting the stage for earnings disappointments. We continue to expect Q4 to
be highly rotational similar to Q4 2006 with Financials and Consumer stocks leading
the early stages of the recovery but with Materials, Energy and Technology resuming
leadership following relative performance pullbacks in early Q4.
IDEAS
Consolidation/re-acceleration profiles:
• MRK, AYE, Q, DLB, RVBD, MFE, AVT, PWR
Oversold/bottoming (value) profiles:
• S, WYE, CEPH, GCI
Reduce Candidates
• GIS, KMB, ESRX, CI, HNT, STX, JNPR, IR, TNB, X, ATI, TIE, CNX
Observer
The future is 90% present and 10% vision.