11 replies to this topic

[Rogerdodger]

A few out takes from Gene Inger:

The market is missing something: consumption as a percent of GDP already is lower. Don't take my word for these concerns; interbank rates are suggesting precisely this. And nothing in the Fed Minutes contradicted any of 'actual' vs. 'perceived' concerns.

Bottom-line: consumer discretionary spending is weak and will get weaker. Housing is soft and will get softer. The proportion of housing as a percentage of GDP is not at all irrelevant as many bulls contend; nor is their impact on credit-based consumption.

Key credit or derivative issues are not ameliorated, as projected Fed actions were, though 'structuring' does move toward improvement, essentially 'pushing on a string'. That's a different issue then just stemming a tide. The Fed is treading carefully, and doing the right thing. We are hardly yet out of the woods with respect to housing; or debt or war issues. Important: a Fed 'staying ahead of a situation', isn't preventing it.

Slow growth will likely descend into recession; of course that fear too prompted what the Fed did, inline with expectations (and a tad more), albeit with a bigger reaction to it. Our 2007 view has been that we're in an ill-defined recession; likely recognized if at all, only later. As to whether it descends into something like post-railroad debacles of the 1880's; well in-part it's what the Fed worries about. Regression to the mean and traditional affordability 'rules' will be hallmarks of lending guidelines for a while.

This week suggested as down-up-dip-up-fade; it evolves.

[NAV]

This week suggested as down-up-dip-up-fade; it evolves.

I like that

[Rogerdodger]

Only 50 billion needed today: FED

[da_cheif]

A few out takes from Gene Inger:

The market is missing something: consumption as a percent of GDP already is lower. Don't take my word for these concerns; interbank rates are suggesting precisely this. And nothing in the Fed Minutes contradicted any of 'actual' vs. 'perceived' concerns.

Bottom-line: consumer discretionary spending is weak and will get weaker. Housing is soft and will get softer. The proportion of housing as a percentage of GDP is not at all irrelevant as many bulls contend; nor is their impact on credit-based consumption.

Key credit or derivative issues are not ameliorated, as projected Fed actions were, though 'structuring' does move toward improvement, essentially 'pushing on a string'. That's a different issue then just stemming a tide. The Fed is treading carefully, and doing the right thing. We are hardly yet out of the woods with respect to housing; or debt or war issues. Important: a Fed 'staying ahead of a situation', isn't preventing it.

Slow growth will likely descend into recession; of course that fear too prompted what the Fed did, inline with expectations (and a tad more), albeit with a bigger reaction to it. Our 2007 view has been that we're in an ill-defined recession; likely recognized if at all, only later. As to whether it descends into something like post-railroad debacles of the 1880's; well in-part it's what the Fed worries about. Regression to the mean and traditional affordability 'rules' will be hallmarks of lending guidelines for a while.

This week suggested as down-up-dip-up-fade; it evolves.

darn ...he had me goin there for a minit.....i actually thought he was goin to talk about the stock market and WWW...lmao

[arbman]

i actually thought he was goin to talk about the stock market

Honestly, I felt the same way, I need hard numbers, targets and dates, everything else is just fluff...

... I guess I must admit it is fun to read.

[89S10]

Are there any favorites among those who post their newsletters here? Most of them do not seem very helpful.

[danzman]

Are there any favorites among those who post their newsletters here?

Most of them do not seem very helpful.

Whomever you pick, make sure they don't even talk about the economy. That has nothing to do

with short-term trading. Seriously. Just buy and sell signals. Anything else is just fluff and filler.



D

[pdx5]

Whomever you pick, make sure they don't even talk about the economy. That has nothing to do

with short-term trading. Seriously. Just buy and sell signals. Anything else is just fluff and filler.


D

I think you got it right. But for people like me who trade IT to LT, economy
is an important factor. Actually the overriding factor. If this board is only
for ST traders, then economy should be OT.

[Rogerdodger]

I've subscribed to Gene in the past. He was correctly very bullish at the time. His recent cautiousness has caught my attention. I don't read "end of the world" stuff here but simply that there are issues which are being digested but as yet unresolved.

[nimblebear]

I've subscribed to Gene in the past.
He was correctly very bullish at the time.
His recent cautiousness has caught my attention.
I don't read "end of the world" stuff here but simply that there are issues which are being digested but as yet unresolved.

Howard Davidowitz says: Retail is DOA !

The consumer can no longer consume at the previously unsustainable rate. Mortgage equity is dried up. No savings. Huge debt load.

Only retailer doing well is COSTCO. Also Super luxury types.

Gonna be a soft xmas.