3 replies to this topic

[redfoliage2]

With real estate market cooling down for a while its effect on corporate earnings starts showing up: today market got a wakeup call from Alcoa, International Paper Co. and Chevron Corp. among others.

[pdx5]

And it wont get any better until the ARM resets go past the top in March-April 2008. The foreclosures should see the top a few months later. Since few new sub-prime loans if any are being issued I expect economy to start recovering 6-8 months after the worst of ARM resets are behind us. That takes us into November 2008. The stock market should be advancing 4-6 months before the economic pickup. That would be around May-June 2008.

[redfoliage2]

More joining the earnings warning tonight.

"Large and small U.S. retailers have reported signs of cautious spending by consumers, who are feeling the pain of higher food and gasoline prices as the housing market decelerates after buoying consumer confidence and spending for years."
On one side it's housing market cooling down and on the other it's the high inflation rate in food and energy. The real inflation is much higher than in government data. Also look at health insurance, college tuitions, and .............

http://www.reuters.c...029981920071011

Edited by redfoliage2, 10 October 2007 - 09:21 PM.

[pdx5]

I kinda like the food inflation ... might incentivise me to slim down

People are also going heavy on cards..

http://www.reuters.c...936312820071009

Edited by pdx5, 11 October 2007 - 12:33 AM.