6 replies to this topic

[airedale88]

i had posted some days ago that i felt the nominal 10 wk nest of cycle lows would be benign and my Hurst work plus other work i do suggested no decline of any import would occur in the near future.

we are in the time window for the 10 wk cycle low to bottom and what evidence there is suggests that bottom occurred wed. the breakout today of the small coil/consolidation that shows on the RUT chart and some other indexes is the only indication of any cyclic downside, and that downside was muted by the very strong cyclic uptrend larger than the 10 wk cycle.

we remain very early in the new 4.5 yr cycle up trend with much higher prices coming.



RUT coil and today's breakout..

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$RUT&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&i=p91031909459&r=749.png

[skyymaster]

Thank Airdale, What do you make of the .DJT as it does not want to play along.

[arbman]

I was right about to post that the market can not rally higher without releasing some of the tension from the prices, but it dumped before I was able to type it...

[airedale88]

i don't subscribe to Dow theory so the Tran divergence does not concern me. it's just another sector. the cycles are there, but fundamentals are overriding their impetus.

I was right about to post that the market can not rally higher without releasing some of the tension from the prices, but it dumped before I was able to type it...

kis, there is still the small chance the 10 wk low has not bottomed, if so we need a reversal to the downside quickly. unless one is a VST trader, i think it's more important staying or getting long rather than trying to scalp a few points downside and missing alot of upside movement.

[airedale88]

kis, that might have been perfect reverse timing on my part. as soon as i think the evidence points to the 10 wk low being in they drop it like a rock. now i'll have to wait and see again.

[arbman]

kis, there is still the small chance the 10 wk low has not bottomed, if so we need a reversal to the downside quickly. unless one is a VST trader, i think it's more important staying or getting long rather than trying to scalp a few points downside and missing alot of upside movement.

That's mainly my thinking, I actively hedge though, anyway I expect the 10 wk low next week, but I also expect a rally, do you think the market is entering a mid channel pause zone later for the second half of Oct before the next 100 SPX points?

[airedale88]

we'll need to see what happens over the next few days to see if a pause zone is to occur.