4 replies to this topic

[dcengr]

On a day where the Qs gapped up .5% then dropped more than 1.5% from the open... What happens if you shorted the close and covered 2 days later? Well this happened 63 times since 1999. 40% of the time, you MADE money. 60% of the time, you LOST money. The gainers were average of .5%, the losers were average of 2%. Hence not only did your odds of losing higher than winning, but you also lost 4x as much as you would've gained. If I limit this to 1/1/03 to today, this has happened 8 times, only ONCE were you profitable. Hence the odds are greater for higher prices.. probably a good deal of retrace.

[U.F.O.]

Wanna bet on this one? U.F.O.

[dcengr]

Wanna bet on this one?

U.F.O.

I've already bet.. I've posted my two sell signals. One was a weekly sell signal issued end of last week, one was a daily sell signal issued tuesday.

Its quite possible tomorrow (friday) is down, and my weekly system will issue an exit signal. The daily system issued an exit today.

But my study was posted for TWO days, hence one would have to hold til monday, where the odds of a bounce are higher.

The bounce, according to the study, would be higher than the close of today's price by 2% on average. Hence, a retest of the highs seems to be on order..

That seems to be predicting a very big monday, unless something happens geopolitcally.

These are, ofcourse, short term studies. IT.. I am leaning bearish, but I know tops take some time to build unless one of my magically delicious fractals come to life, which suggests this is the top of the entire bull market.

FYI, the trades that the program spit out...

Position Symbol Shares Entry Date Entry Price Exit Date Exit Price % Change Net Profit Bars Held Profit/Bar Entry Signal Exit Signal Cum Profit MAE % MFE %
Short QQQQ 1,829 04/14/99 52.81 04/16/99 53.41 -1.14 -1,102.43 2 -551.21 Time-Based -1,102.43 -1.52 3.20
Short QQQQ 1,924 04/19/99 49.53 04/21/99 51.13 -3.23 -3,081.89 2 -1,540.95 Time-Based -4,184.32 -3.22 1.39
Short QQQQ 1,767 04/27/99 55.72 04/29/99 53.56 3.85 3,794.54 2 1,897.27 Time-Based -389.78 0.00 3.87
Short QQQQ 1,803 05/13/99 54.44 05/17/99 52.94 2.74 2,688.50 2 1,344.25 Time-Based 2,298.72 0.00 2.76
Short QQQQ 1,902 06/11/99 51.78 06/15/99 50.93 1.63 1,604.51 2 802.25 Time-Based 3,903.23 -0.36 2.11
Short QQQQ 1,595 09/15/99 61.50 09/17/99 62.03 -0.88 -863.75 2 -431.87 Time-Based 3,039.48 -0.86 2.12
Short QQQQ 1,598 09/23/99 60.00 09/27/99 60.94 -1.58 -1,514.13 2 -757.06 Time-Based 1,525.35 -1.56 2.29
Short QQQQ 1,160 01/06/00 80.75 01/10/00 91.00 -12.71 -11,906.00 2 -5,953.00 Time-Based -10,380.65 -12.69 0.00
Short QQQQ 1,133 01/12/00 86.56 01/14/00 93.00 -7.45 -7,309.69 2 -3,654.84 Time-Based -17,690.33 -7.44 0.00
Short QQQQ 1,039 01/24/00 91.25 01/26/00 93.25 -2.21 -2,094.00 2 -1,047.00 Time-Based -19,784.33 -3.14 2.02
Short QQQQ 982 02/18/00 98.81 02/23/00 99.68 -0.89 -867.39 2 -433.70 Time-Based -20,651.72 -1.14 2.59
Short QQQQ 897 03/07/00 109.75 03/09/00 111.22 -1.35 -1,333.69 2 -666.85 Time-Based -21,985.42 -2.05 3.16
Short QQQQ 899 03/14/00 107.00 03/16/00 105.38 1.50 1,444.88 2 722.44 Time-Based -20,540.54 0.00 4.79
Short QQQQ 943 04/10/00 100.00 04/12/00 97.63 2.36 2,223.63 2 1,111.81 Time-Based -18,316.92 -1.50 4.25
Short QQQQ 1,087 04/13/00 89.00 04/17/00 78.02 12.33 11,923.61 2 5,961.80 Time-Based -6,393.31 0.00 12.36
Short QQQQ 1,090 04/19/00 89.06 04/24/00 83.44 6.30 6,115.25 2 3,057.63 Time-Based -278.06 -2.14 6.32
Short QQQQ 1,254 05/25/00 77.50 05/30/00 80.00 -3.24 -3,151.00 2 -1,575.50 Time-Based -3,429.06 -3.23 2.26
Short QQQQ 1,069 06/12/00 91.00 06/14/00 94.88 -4.27 -4,158.38 2 -2,079.19 Time-Based -7,587.43 -4.26 1.80
Short QQQQ 1,062 06/14/00 92.16 06/16/00 94.75 -2.83 -2,770.83 2 -1,385.41 Time-Based -10,358.26 -2.81 1.39
Short QQQQ 1,028 07/24/00 94.31 07/26/00 95.50 -1.28 -1,236.23 2 -618.12 Time-Based -11,594.50 -2.57 0.53
Short QQQQ 1,092 07/28/00 86.81 08/01/00 89.81 -3.47 -3,292.00 2 -1,646.00 Time-Based -14,886.50 -3.82 1.26
Short QQQQ 1,078 09/12/00 91.31 09/14/00 95.25 -4.33 -4,260.08 2 -2,130.04 Time-Based -19,146.58 -4.31 1.44
Short QQQQ 1,076 09/25/00 90.19 09/27/00 90.63 -0.50 -486.21 2 -243.10 Time-Based -19,632.79 -2.56 1.39
Short QQQQ 1,128 10/02/00 86.75 10/04/00 83.50 3.73 3,650.00 2 1,825.00 Time-Based -15,982.79 -2.38 4.02
Short QQQQ 1,298 10/12/00 75.13 10/16/00 81.13 -8.00 -7,804.00 2 -3,902.00 Time-Based -23,786.79 -8.65 0.67
Short QQQQ 1,225 10/17/00 78.25 10/19/00 82.39 -5.31 -5,088.72 2 -2,544.36 Time-Based -28,875.51 -5.29 4.71
Short QQQQ 1,528 11/29/00 62.94 12/01/00 64.06 -1.80 -1,735.01 2 -867.50 Time-Based -30,610.52 -2.08 3.87
Short QQQQ 1,396 12/13/00 68.73 12/15/00 64.25 6.51 6,243.67 2 3,121.83 Time-Based -24,366.85 -1.39 6.52
Short QQQQ 1,498 01/31/01 64.30 02/02/01 64.94 -1.01 -974.72 2 -487.36 Time-Based -25,341.57 -2.04 1.09
Short QQQQ 1,752 02/13/01 55.30 02/15/01 58.80 -6.35 -6,148.00 2 -3,074.00 Time-Based -31,489.57 -6.33 2.12
Short QQQQ 1,814 02/20/01 52.99 02/22/01 51.45 2.89 2,777.56 2 1,388.78 Time-Based -28,712.01 -2.04 3.91
Short QQQQ 2,041 02/28/01 47.45 03/02/01 47.20 0.51 494.25 2 247.13 Time-Based -28,217.76 -3.69 3.58
Short QQQQ 2,286 03/15/01 42.15 03/19/01 41.44 1.67 1,607.07 2 803.53 Time-Based -26,610.69 -1.54 3.77
Short QQQQ 2,336 03/26/01 41.81 03/28/01 41.90 -0.23 -226.24 2 -113.12 Time-Based -26,836.93 -4.57 0.93
Short QQQQ 2,217 04/26/01 43.95 04/30/01 46.25 -5.25 -5,115.10 2 -2,557.55 Time-Based -31,952.03 -5.23 0.00
Short QQQQ 2,148 05/10/01 45.77 05/14/01 45.30 1.01 993.56 2 496.78 Time-Based -30,958.47 -1.42 1.49
Short QQQQ 2,183 06/13/01 44.55 06/15/01 41.80 6.16 5,987.25 2 2,993.63 Time-Based -24,971.22 0.00 6.17
Short QQQQ 2,380 07/10/01 40.50 07/12/01 42.63 -5.28 -5,085.40 2 -2,542.70 Time-Based -30,056.62 -5.26 1.56
Short QQQQ 2,317 07/16/01 42.35 07/18/01 42.28 0.15 148.51 2 74.25 Time-Based -29,908.11 -2.48 1.91
Short QQQQ 2,401 07/23/01 40.61 07/25/01 40.14 1.14 1,110.07 2 555.04 Time-Based -28,798.04 -0.71 3.20
Short QQQQ 2,765 09/04/01 35.47 09/06/01 34.74 2.04 2,002.45 2 1,001.22 Time-Based -26,795.59 -1.24 3.72
Short QQQQ 3,205 09/18/01 30.50 09/20/01 29.30 3.92 3,830.00 2 1,915.00 Time-Based -22,965.59 -1.64 7.34
Short QQQQ 3,367 09/26/01 28.67 09/28/01 28.84 -0.61 -588.39 2 -294.20 Time-Based -23,553.98 -0.59 4.36
Short QQQQ 2,860 10/17/01 32.45 10/19/01 32.87 -1.31 -1,214.34 2 -607.17 Time-Based -24,768.31 -3.36 0.15
Short QQQQ 2,591 01/22/02 37.40 01/24/02 38.94 -4.13 -4,006.13 2 -2,003.07 Time-Based -28,774.45 -4.12 0.13
Short QQQQ 3,029 04/24/02 32.50 04/26/02 32.66 -0.51 -506.69 2 -253.35 Time-Based -29,281.14 -0.71 1.54
Short QQQQ 3,085 04/26/02 31.04 04/30/02 31.03 0.01 8.68 2 4.34 Time-Based -29,272.46 -1.64 1.52
Short QQQQ 3,274 05/31/02 30.04 06/04/02 28.75 4.27 4,204.19 2 2,102.10 Time-Based -25,068.27 -0.70 4.29
Short QQQQ 3,540 06/11/02 27.46 06/13/02 27.76 -1.13 -1,095.70 2 -547.85 Time-Based -26,163.97 -1.82 2.28
Short QQQQ 3,798 06/25/02 25.46 06/27/02 26.00 -2.14 -2,066.92 2 -1,033.46 Time-Based -28,230.89 -2.12 4.20
Short QQQQ 4,055 07/10/02 23.90 07/12/02 25.25 -5.67 -5,490.25 2 -2,745.13 Time-Based -33,721.14 -5.65 1.55
Short QQQQ 3,960 08/27/02 24.37 08/29/02 23.20 4.78 4,617.20 2 2,308.60 Time-Based -29,103.94 0.00 4.80
Short QQQQ 4,413 09/17/02 22.18 09/19/02 21.70 2.15 2,102.24 2 1,051.12 Time-Based -27,001.70 -1.67 2.16
Short QQQQ 4,822 10/04/02 20.35 10/08/02 20.28 0.33 321.54 2 160.77 Time-Based -26,680.16 -1.18 2.46
Short QQQQ 3,976 01/30/03 24.54 02/03/03 24.53 0.03 31.72 2 15.86 Time-Based -26,648.45 -0.90 2.16
Short QQQQ 4,131 02/07/03 23.81 02/11/03 24.25 -1.86 -1,833.64 2 -916.82 Time-Based -28,482.09 -1.85 0.80
Short QQQQ 3,264 06/06/03 30.13 06/10/03 29.86 0.88 865.28 2 432.64 Time-Based -27,616.81 -0.30 1.99
Short QQQQ 2,884 11/18/03 33.88 11/20/03 33.89 -0.05 -44.84 2 -22.42 Time-Based -27,661.65 -1.53 0.00
Short QQQQ 2,838 12/09/03 34.43 12/11/03 34.50 -0.22 -214.66 2 -107.33 Time-Based -27,876.31 -0.78 0.87
Short QQQQ 2,650 01/28/04 37.10 01/30/04 37.20 -0.29 -281.01 2 -140.50 Time-Based -28,157.31 -0.57 1.19
Short QQQQ 2,663 02/19/04 36.98 02/23/04 37.00 -0.07 -69.26 2 -34.63 Time-Based -28,226.58 -0.43 1.16
Short QQQQ 2,060 07/31/07 47.53 08/02/07 47.94 -0.88 -860.60 2 -430.30 Time-Based -29,087.18 -0.86 1.16
Short QQQQ 1,869 10/11/07 52.66 Open Open -0.01 -8.00 1 -8.00 -29,095.18 0.00 0.00

[gorydog]

In the members section of sentiment trader there is a comment today on this. Extend you study a few days further out and see if you results are as bullish. I suppose I'd need permission to be more specific.


GD

[quote name='gorydog' date='Oct 11 2007, 10:19 PM' post='320796']
In the members section of sentiment trader there is a comment today on this. Extend you study a few days further out and see if you results are as bullish. I suppose I'd need permission to be more specific.


GD

[dcengr]

I'm a sub of sentimentrader.. didn't know jason did a study, will look into it. Thanks. Ok I've looked into it.. again, the study I've posted, the dates are shown. He must be showing the same dates as I am. Basically, short term, there's a bounce.. perhaps not tomorrow, but a few days from now. But for some of them, there was longer term pull backs while some of them the rally resumed. I still have a weekly sell system in place, and it will not register a cover signal unless Qs are down tomorrow, and likely a substantial amount. If its not and prices are higher than today going into friday, the sell signal remains intact going into next week.

Edited by dcengr, 11 October 2007 - 09:33 PM.